瑞达期货PVC产业日报-20251112

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core View of the Report The PVC market is facing significant supply - demand contradictions. With high开工 rates, high inventories, and low demand, the valuation repair lacks an opportunity. In the short term, V2601 is expected to fluctuate weakly, with a daily range around 4500 - 4610 yuan/ton [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of PVC futures is 4581 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 9 yuan/ton. The trading volume is 499,375 hands, a decrease of 103,394 hands. The open interest is 1,397,880 hands, a decrease of 9,251 hands [3]. - The long position of the top 20 futures holders is 1,020,736 hands, a decrease of 1,671 hands; the short position is 1,257,192 hands, an increase of 1,657 hands; the net long position is - 236,456 hands, a decrease of 3,328 hands [3]. 3.2 Spot Market - In the East China region, the price of ethylene - based PVC is 4,620 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of calcium carbide - based PVC is 4,546.54 yuan/ton, a decrease of 10.77 yuan/ton. In the South China region, the price of ethylene - based PVC is 4,692.5 yuan/ton, a decrease of 10 yuan/ton; the price of calcium carbide - based PVC is 4,602.5 yuan/ton, a decrease of 15.62 yuan/ton [3]. - The CIF price of PVC in China is 690 US dollars/ton, unchanged; the CIF price in Southeast Asia is 650 US dollars/ton, unchanged; the FOB price in Northwest Europe is 700 US dollars/ton, unchanged. The basis of PVC is - 71 yuan/ton, a decrease of 9 yuan/ton [3]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - The mainstream average price of calcium carbide in Central China is 2,800 yuan/ton, unchanged; in North China is 2,673.33 yuan/ton, unchanged; in Northwest China is 2,508 yuan/ton, unchanged. The mainstream price of liquid chlorine in Inner Mongolia is - 24.5 yuan/ton, unchanged [3]. - The mid - price of VCM CFR in the Far East is 488 US dollars/ton, unchanged; in Southeast Asia is 518 US dollars/ton, unchanged. The mid - price of EDC CFR in the Far East is 179 US dollars/ton, unchanged; in Southeast Asia is 184 US dollars/ton, unchanged [3]. 3.4 Industry Situation - The weekly operating rate of PVC is 80.75%, an increase of 2.49 percentage points. The operating rate of calcium carbide - based PVC is 81.21%, an increase of 3.78 percentage points; the operating rate of ethylene - based PVC is 79.69%, a decrease of 0.51 percentage points [3]. - The total social inventory of PVC is 545,700 tons, an increase of 1,100 tons. The inventory in East China is 497,500 tons, an increase of 2,200 tons; the inventory in South China is 48,200 tons, a decrease of 1,100 tons [3]. 3.5 Downstream Situation - The national real estate climate index is 92.78, a decrease of 0.27. The cumulative value of new housing construction area is 45.399 million square meters, an increase of 5.59799 million square meters. The cumulative value of real estate construction area is 6.4858 billion square meters, an increase of 5.47106 million square meters. The cumulative value of real estate development investment is 358.6387 billion yuan, an increase of 41.6993 billion yuan [3]. 3.6 Option Market - The 20 - day historical volatility of PVC is 9.49%, an increase of 0.04 percentage points; the 40 - day historical volatility is 10.22%, a decrease of 0.13 percentage points [3]. - The implied volatility of at - the - money put options is 13.89%, a decrease of 0.23 percentage points; the implied volatility of at - the - money call options is 13.9%, a decrease of 0.22 percentage points [3]. 3.7 Industry News - From November 1st to 7th, the PVC capacity utilization rate increased by 2.49% week - on - week to 80.75%. The downstream operating rate decreased by 0.94% week - on - week to 49.6%, with the pipe operating rate decreasing by 2.6% to 39.4% and the profile operating rate decreasing by 0.22% to 37.61% [3]. - As of November 6th, the PVC social inventory was 1.0416 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 1.13%. The average cost of calcium carbide - based PVC decreased to 5,158 yuan/ton, and the average cost of ethylene - based PVC decreased to 5,264 yuan/ton. The profit of calcium carbide - based PVC decreased to - 769 yuan/ton, and the profit of ethylene - based PVC decreased to - 465 yuan/ton [3]. 3.8 Outlook - The 400,000 - ton Henan Lianchuang device will be shut down for maintenance, and the 360,000 - ton Qilu Petrochemical device will restart. It is expected that the capacity utilization rate will decrease slightly week - on - week. In winter, it is the off - season for chlor - alkali device maintenance, and PVC will generally maintain a high operating state [3]. - As the temperature drops, the terminal demand in infrastructure and real estate weakens, and the downstream operating rate of PVC is expected to decline seasonally. The anti - dumping tax in India has no specific implementation time, and overseas demand remains uncertain. The supply - demand contradiction in the domestic market is significant, and it is difficult to reduce PVC inventory, with high inventory pressure likely to continue [3].