服务转型金融的中国高碳行业减碳基准路径研究（第一阶段成果）

Investment Rating - The report establishes a benchmark for decarbonization pathways for carbon-intensive industries in China, aligning with the country's dual carbon goals [9][14]. Core Insights - Transition finance is crucial for supporting the low-carbon shift of the real economy, with credible corporate transition plans being a prerequisite for accessing such funding [11][12]. - The study utilizes an integrated economy-climate model to simulate decarbonization pathways under different global temperature scenarios (1.5°C, 2°C, and 3°C) [12][13]. - The proposed 2°C-aligned pathway serves as a suitable benchmark for evaluating corporate transition plans, consistent with the Paris Agreement and China's updated Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) [13][14]. Summary by Sections Introduction - Climate risks have become a significant challenge affecting ecosystems and human development, with global greenhouse gas emissions reaching 57.1 billion tons in 2023, a 1.3% increase from 2022 [21][22]. - The green low-carbon transition of carbon-intensive industries is critical for China, as these sectors account for approximately 80% of the country's total carbon emissions [22][23]. Research Framework - The study constructs the China Energy Saving and Low-Carbon Dynamic Computable General Equilibrium (IFS-CGE) model to assess the long-term impacts of transition and physical climate risks on the economy and carbon emissions [9][24]. - The model simulates decarbonization pathways for major carbon-intensive sectors from 2020 to 2060, considering various temperature scenarios and their implications for sectoral output and carbon emissions [9][12]. Results Analysis - The report identifies six major carbon-intensive sectors: electricity, steel, cement, chemicals, non-ferrous metals, and glass, providing specific decarbonization pathways for each [14][16]. - The findings highlight the need for financial institutions to have authoritative benchmarks to evaluate the scientific validity and ambition of corporate transition plans, mitigating the risk of "greenwashing" [11][12]. Future Research Directions - The next phase of the research will refine the model and data, expanding the decarbonization benchmarks to additional sectors, including construction, real estate, shipping, aviation, ceramics, and paper [16].