农产品早报-20251113

1. Report's Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Views of the Report - Corn prices are expected to oscillate in the short - term due to unstable supply and weak downstream consumption. In the long - run, after the first peak of grain sales, prices may rebound as farmers may hold back on selling [2] - Starch prices are pressured by high inventory in the short - term, and downstream consumption rhythm will be the key factor for long - term price trends [3] - For sugar, maintain a short - selling strategy as the global and domestic supply is loose. However, short - term downward space is limited [5] - Cotton is suitable for long - term buying as new cotton production is lower than expected and the external environment for textile exports has improved [8] - Egg prices have a slightly higher price center due to balanced supply and demand. Faster chicken culling may drive prices up [14] - Apple prices are expected to fluctuate in the short - term with a reduction in new - season production and quality issues in some regions [16] - Pig prices will experience short - term market fluctuations. Mid - term supply pressure remains high, and the de - stocking process is the key driver of the market [16] 3. Summary by Commodity Corn/Starch - Price Data: From 2025/11/06 to 2025/11/12, corn prices in some areas increased slightly (e.g., 10 yuan increase in some locations), while starch processing profit decreased by 20 yuan [2] - Market Analysis: Short - term corn price increase is limited by weak downstream demand. Starch prices follow raw material prices but are suppressed by high inventory [2][3] Sugar - Price Data: Changes from 2025/11/06 to 2025/11/11 show fluctuations in spot prices and other indicators, with the number of warehouse receipts remaining unchanged [4][5] - Market Analysis: Short - term Zhengzhou sugar is more affected by policies. In the long - term, if the global sugar market surplus worsens, domestic sugar costs may be affected [5] Cotton/Cotton Yarn - Price Data: From 2025/11/06 to 2025/11/12, cotton prices decreased slightly (e.g., 3128 cotton dropped from 14490 to 14395), and some related profit indicators changed [6][8] - Market Analysis: New cotton production is lower than expected, and improved external conditions for textile exports make it suitable for long - term investment [8] Eggs - Price Data: From 2025/11/06 to 2025/11/12, egg prices in some production areas increased slightly, and the basis and prices of some substitutes changed [14] - Market Analysis: Supply pressure is relieved, and demand is increasing. Faster chicken culling may drive up prices [14] Apples - Price Data: From 2025/11/06 to 2025/11/12, the spot price of Shandong 80 first - and second - grade apples remained at 8000 yuan, and inventory and basis data changed [15][16] - Market Analysis: New - season apple production has decreased, and prices will fluctuate in the short - term [16] Pigs - Price Data: From 2025/11/06 to 2025/11/12, pig prices in some production areas decreased slightly, and the basis changed significantly [16] - Market Analysis: Short - term prices will fluctuate, and mid - term supply pressure is high. The de - stocking process is crucial [16]