《有色》日报-20251113

Report Industry Investment Ratings No information about industry investment ratings is provided in the content. 2. Core Views of the Reports Tin - Market sentiment has improved, and the fundamentals are strong. Hold long positions and monitor macro - end changes and the supply recovery in Myanmar in the fourth quarter. If Myanmar's supply recovers smoothly, tin prices may weaken; otherwise, they are expected to remain strong [2]. Industrial Silicon - The spot price of industrial silicon is stable, while the futures price fluctuates downward. In November, there is still a risk of inventory accumulation, but the pressure is reduced compared to October. The price is expected to fluctuate at a low level, with the main price range between 8,500 - 9,500 yuan/ton [4]. Polysilicon - The market remains in a state of high - level price fluctuations. There is an expectation of inventory accumulation in all links. Pay attention to the support level of the spot price, the establishment of the platform company, production control, and demand - side orders. For trading, focus on the 50,000 support level for futures, and hold and observe ETFs/related stocks [5]. Copper - The copper market is in a wait - and - see mode. Macro factors such as interest rate cuts, tariffs, and overseas liquidity will affect copper prices. Fundamentally, the supply of copper ore is tight, and downstream demand is resilient. The bottom of copper prices is expected to gradually rise, with the main contract focusing on the 86,500 support level [8]. Zinc - The fundamentals and macro factors of zinc have limited changes. The supply is expected to face less pressure, and the demand is average. The LME zinc price has an upper - bound pressure, while the export of zinc ingots may boost domestic zinc prices. The main contract of Shanghai zinc is expected to range between 22,300 - 23,000 [10]. Nickel - The nickel market is in a state of long - short entanglement. Macro factors exert pressure, and the supply of refined nickel is high. The supply of nickel ore is stable, and the price of nickel - iron is under pressure. The market is expected to fluctuate weakly, with the main contract ranging between 118,000 - 124,000 [11]. Stainless Steel - The stainless - steel market is weak. Macro driving forces are weakening, the supply of nickel ore is stable, and the price of nickel - iron is under pressure. The supply is still under pressure, and demand is insufficient. The market is expected to fluctuate weakly, with the main contract ranging between 12,400 - 12,800 [12]. Aluminum Alloy - The casting aluminum - alloy market has reached a new high. The cost is strongly supported, but demand is weak due to high prices. Inventory is accumulating. The price of ADC12 is expected to fluctuate strongly, with the main contract ranging between 20,800 - 21,400 yuan/ton [15][17]. Lithium Carbonate - The lithium - carbonate market fluctuates widely. The supply is gradually increasing, and demand is optimistic. The price is expected to fluctuate in the short term. Pay attention to the resumption of production of large factories and downstream demand changes [20]. Aluminum - The alumina market is in a weak - supply and weak - demand situation, with prices expected to fluctuate weakly. The electrolytic aluminum market is driven by macro factors, with strong capital sentiment but weak fundamentals. The price may test the 22,000 pressure level [21]. 3. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs Tin - Price and Basis: SMM 1 tin price increased by 1.15% to 291,000 yuan/ton, and the LME 0 - 3 premium increased by 155.03% to 85.00 dollars/ton [2]. - Fundamentals: In September, domestic tin ore imports decreased by 15.13% month - on - month. In October, SMM refined tin production increased by 53.09% [2]. - Inventory: SHEF inventory increased by 1.23% to 5,992.0 tons, and social inventory increased by 5.22% to 7,033.0 tons [2]. Industrial Silicon - Price and Basis: The price of East China oxygen - permeable SI5530 industrial silicon remained unchanged at 9,500 yuan/ton, and the basis increased by 52.38% [4]. - Fundamentals: In October, the national industrial silicon production increased by 7.46% to 45.22 million tons, and the national operating rate increased by 9.98% to 68.12% [4]. - Inventory: The weekly social inventory decreased by 1.08% to 55.20 million tons [4]. Polysilicon - Price and Basis: The average price of N - type granular silicon remained unchanged at 50,500 yuan/ton, and the N - type material basis increased by 117.76% [5]. - Fundamentals: In October, polysilicon production increased by 3.08% to 13.40 million tons, and the import volume increased by 28.46% to 0.13 million tons [5]. - Inventory: The polysilicon inventory decreased by 0.77% to 25.90 million tons [5]. Copper - Price and Basis: The price of SMM 1 electrolytic copper increased by 0.03% to 86,795 yuan/ton, and the import profit and loss increased by 84.77 yuan/ton [8][9]. - Fundamentals: In October, electrolytic copper production decreased by 2.62% to 109.16 million tons, and the electrolytic copper rod operating rate increased by 1.54 percentage points [8]. - Inventory: The domestic social inventory decreased by 2.10% to 19.59 million tons, and the SHFE inventory decreased by 0.95% to 11.50 million tons [8]. Zinc - Price and Basis: The price of SMM 0 zinc ingot decreased by 0.22% to 22,610 yuan/ton, and the import profit and loss increased by 542.25 yuan/ton [10]. - Fundamentals: In October, refined zinc production increased by 2.85% to 61.72 million tons, and the galvanizing operating rate decreased by 2.41 percentage points [10]. - Inventory: The seven - region social inventory of Chinese zinc ingots decreased by 1.30% to 15.96 million tons, and the LME inventory increased by 1.63% to 3.6 million tons [10]. Nickel - Price and Basis: The price of SMM 1 electrolytic nickel decreased by 0.70% to 120,450 yuan/ton, and the LME 0 - 3 decreased by 2.10% to - 201 dollars/ton [11]. - Fundamentals: The production of Chinese refined nickel increased by 0.84% to 35,900 tons, and the import volume increased by 124.36% [11]. - Inventory: The SHFE inventory increased by 1.19% to 37,187 tons, and the social inventory increased by 2.14% to 49,133 tons [11]. Stainless Steel - Price and Basis: The price of 304/2B (Wuxi Hongwang 2.0 coil) decreased by 0.39% to 12,700 yuan/ton, and the basis decreased by 2.20% [12]. - Fundamentals: The production of Chinese 300 - series stainless - steel crude steel increased by 0.38% to 182.17 million tons, and the import volume increased by 2.70% [12]. - Inventory: The social inventory of 300 - series stainless steel decreased by 0.65% to 48.89 million tons, and the SHFE warehouse receipt decreased by 0.42% to 7.14 million tons [12]. Aluminum Alloy - Price and Basis: The price of SMM aluminum alloy ADC12 remained unchanged at 21,500 yuan/ton, and the refined - scrap spread of Foshan crushed aluminum increased by 2.42% [15][17]. - Fundamentals: In October, the production of recycled aluminum alloy ingots decreased by 2.42% to 64.50 million tons, and the operating rate of recycled aluminum alloy decreased by 2.95% [15][17]. - Inventory: The weekly social inventory of recycled aluminum alloy ingots increased by 1.82% to 5.58 million tons [15][17]. Lithium Carbonate - Price and Basis: The average price of SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate increased by 1.22% to 83,300 yuan/ton, and the basis (based on SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate) increased by 30.17% [20]. - Fundamentals: In October, the production of lithium carbonate increased by 5.73% to 92,260 tons, and the demand increased by 8.70% [20]. - Inventory: The total inventory of lithium carbonate in October decreased by 10.90% to 84,234 tons [20]. Aluminum - Price and Basis: The price of SMM A00 aluminum increased by 0.23% to 21,670 yuan/ton, and the import profit and loss increased by 170.1 yuan/ton [21]. - Fundamentals: In October, the production of alumina increased by 2.39% to 778.53 million tons, and the production of electrolytic aluminum increased by 3.52% to 374.21 million tons [21]. - Inventory: The social inventory of Chinese electrolytic aluminum remained unchanged at 62.70 million tons, and the LME inventory decreased by 0.21% to 54.4 million tons [21].