《农产品》日报-20251113

Report Industry Investment Ratings No investment ratings are provided in the reports. 2. Core Views 2.1 Oils and Fats - Malaysian BMD crude palm oil futures are in low - level volatile consolidation, with a potential upward rebound but also a risk of technical decline due to concerns about export slowdown and high seasonal production. In China, there is a possibility of a short - term breakthrough to fill the gap around 8,950 yuan. - Before the USDA monthly report, the upside of CBOT soybean oil is limited. In China, recent factory soybean oil inventory reduction boosts the basis quote, but overall market demand is limited as it is not the stocking season [1]. 2.2 Pork - Spot prices are weak, and supply is normal. The overall slaughter plan completion is fast. Based on the planned November slaughter volume, the slow progress may boost November pig prices. The market is in a range - bound pattern, and when prices fall to previous lows, second - round fattening may increase. The 3 - 7 spread reverse arbitrage can be held [3]. 2.3 Meal - The market is waiting for the USDA monthly report. There is an expectation of a decrease in soybean yield, and three US soybean importers have resumed licenses, strengthening the support for US soybeans. However, China's 13% tariff on US soybeans affects export. In China, high soybean inventory and reserve rotation expectations suppress the market. The soybean meal market is expected to be in a narrow - range shock [7]. 2.4 Corn - In the Northeast, prices rise with the increase in northern port prices and state reserve purchases. In North China, price - holding sentiment is strong, and deep - processing enterprises raise prices to purchase. Although there is selling pressure due to concentrated supply, prices are also supported by costs and policies. In the short term, the reduction in corn supply leads to a rebound in the futures market, but the rebound is limited [9]. 2.5 Sugar - After short - covering, raw sugar rebounded from around 14 cents/pound. Heavy rainfall in Brazil may affect sugarcane crushing. India plans to export 150 tons of sugar, but exports are uncertain. In China, due to import quotas, the opening of the sugar - pressing season in Guangxi may be postponed, and prices are expected to fluctuate [14][15]. 2.6 Cotton - The US cotton market is in low - level volatile consolidation. China's cancellation of additional tariffs on US agricultural products restores some confidence in US cotton purchases, but global high yields limit the market. In China, the Zhengzhou cotton market faces hedging pressure but also has cost support. The overall demand is weak, and short - term prices are expected to fluctuate within a range [16]. 2.7 Eggs - The inventory of laying hens in November is expected to remain high, and egg supply pressure persists. Consumption is weak, and the market is in an inventory digestion period. Current egg prices are at a bottom - range, supported by farmers' reluctance to sell and traders' potential bargain - hunting [18]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Oils and Fats - Soybean Oil: On November 12, the spot price in Jiangsu was 8,560 yuan, up 0.12% from the previous day; the futures price of Y2601 was 8,288 yuan, up 0.61%; the basis was 272 yuan, down 12.82%. Warehouse receipts decreased by 1.44% [1]. - Palm Oil: The spot price in Guangdong was 8,620 yuan, up 0.12%; the futures price of P2601 was 8,744 yuan, down 0.30%; the basis was - 124 yuan, up 22.50%. The import cost decreased by 0.59%, and the import profit increased by 6.07% [1]. - Rapeseed Oil: The spot price in Jiangsu was 10,110 yuan, up 0.80%; the futures price of OI601 was 9,840 yuan, up 0.66%; the basis was 270 yuan, up 5.88% [1]. 3.2 Pork - Futures: The basis of the main contract decreased by 71.79%. The prices of live hog 2605 and 2601 increased by 0.58% and 0.34% respectively. The 1 - 5 spread decreased by 9.68%, and the main contract positions decreased by 4.52% [3]. - Spot: Spot prices in most regions decreased. The daily slaughter volume increased by 1.04%, the weekly white - striped pork price decreased by 0.53%, the weekly piglet price decreased by 15.00%, and the monthly breeding sow inventory decreased by 0.07% [3]. 3.3 Meal - Soybean Meal: The spot price in Jiangsu was 3,050 yuan, down 0.33%; the futures price of M2601 was 3,028 yuan, up 0.16%; the basis decreased by 250.00%. The import crushing profit from Brazil increased by 36.4% [7]. - Rapeseed Meal: The spot price in Jiangsu was 2,500 yuan, down 1.19%; the futures price of RM2601 was 2,494 yuan, down 0.24%; the basis decreased by 80.00%. The import crushing profit from Canada remained unchanged [7]. - Soybeans: The spot price of Harbin soybeans remained unchanged, the futures price of the main soybean contract increased by 0.36%, and the basis decreased by 7.81%. The spot price of imported soybeans in Jiangsu remained unchanged, the futures price of the main soybean No. 2 contract increased by 0.16%, and the basis decreased by 3.23% [7]. 3.4 Corn - Corn: The price of corn 2601 remained unchanged, the Pingcang price in Jinzhou Port increased by 0.46%, the basis increased by 333.33%, the 1 - 5 spread increased by 3.90%, and the import profit increased by 3.69% [9]. - Corn Starch: The price of corn starch 2601 remained unchanged, and the basis remained unchanged [9]. 3.5 Sugar - Futures: The price of sugar 2601 decreased by 0.04%, the price of ICE raw sugar increased by 2.03%, and the 1 - 5 spread decreased by 2.90% [14]. - Spot: The spot price in Nanning remained unchanged, and the price in Kunming decreased by 0.27%. The national cumulative sugar production increased by 12.03%, the cumulative sales increased by 9.17%, and the industrial inventory decreased by 41.20% [14]. 3.6 Cotton - Futures: The price of cotton 2605 decreased by 0.26%, the price of cotton 2601 decreased by 0.33%, the price of ICE US cotton increased by 1.39%, and the 5 - 1 spread increased [16]. - Spot: The Xinjiang arrival price and CC Index increased slightly, and the FC Index decreased by 0.53%. The commercial inventory increased by 70.4%, the industrial inventory increased by 9.7%, and the import volume increased by 42.9% [16]. 3.7 Eggs - Futures: The prices of egg contracts 12 and 01 decreased by 2.82% and 1.51% respectively. The basis increased by 55.82%, and the 12 - 01 spread decreased by 17.19% [18]. - Spot: The egg - producing area price decreased by 0.29%, the egg - chick price remained unchanged, the culled - hen price decreased by 1.95%, and the breeding profit decreased by 8.51% [18].