Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoint - This week, oil prices remained volatile. OPEC+ decided to suspend production increases in Q1 next year. US EIA commercial crude oil inventories increased by 5.202 million barrels due to increased imports and reduced refining activities, with the increase higher than market expectations. Recently, Western sanctions on Russia and Iran have led to a record high in on - board oil storage, and the trading price of Russian oil in the Indian market has hit the largest discount in nearly a year. This week, refining profits in Europe and the US rebounded. Western sanctions and the extended maintenance of the Dangote refinery supported the gasoline and diesel cracking sentiment. The domestic fundamentals are neutral. The global fundamental surplus and sanctions factors support the Dubai market, and Brent crude oil maintains a volatile pattern, expected to fluctuate in the range of $55 - 65 in Q4 [7]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1. Daily News - Russia is ready to resume negotiations with Ukraine in Istanbul [4]. - Lukoil has applied to the US Treasury to extend the deadline for the ban on transactions after November 21 [4]. - The US Energy Department has awarded a contract to purchase about 1 million barrels of crude oil for the Strategic Petroleum Reserve [4]. 3.2. Production Data - In October, Saudi Arabia's crude oil production increased by 43,000 barrels per day to 10.003 million barrels per day; Venezuela's decreased by 7,000 barrels per day to 956,000 barrels per day; the UAE's increased by 7,000 barrels per day to 3.361 million barrels per day; Iraq's increased by 34,000 barrels per day to 4.098 million barrels per day; Libya's decreased by 30,000 barrels per day to 1.283 million barrels per day; Congo's increased by 1,000 barrels per day to 264,000 barrels per day; Kuwait's increased by 37,000 barrels per day to 2.552 million barrels per day; OPEC's increased by 33,000 barrels per day to 28.46 million barrels per day; Nigeria's increased by 15,000 barrels per day to 1.506 million barrels per day; Algeria's increased by 4,000 barrels per day to 956,000 barrels per day; Iran's decreased by 66,000 barrels per day to 3.209 million barrels per day; Guinea's decreased by 4,000 barrels per day to 48,000 barrels per day [5]. 3.3. Inventory Data - For the week ending October 31, US crude oil exports increased by 6,000 barrels per day to 4.367 million barrels per day; domestic crude oil production increased by 7,000 barrels to 13.651 million barrels per day; commercial crude oil inventories (excluding strategic reserves) increased by 5.202 million barrels to 421 million barrels, a 1.25% increase; the strategic petroleum reserve (SPR) inventory increased by 498,000 barrels to 409.6 million barrels, a 0.12% increase; crude oil imports (excluding strategic reserves) were 5.924 million barrels per day, an increase of 873,000 barrels per day from the previous week; the EIA Cushing crude oil inventory was 300,000 barrels (previous value: 1.334 million barrels); the EIA gasoline inventory was - 4.729 million barrels (expected: - 1.14 million barrels, previous value: - 5.941 million barrels); the EIA refined oil inventory was - 643,000 barrels (expected: - 1.969 million barrels, previous value: - 3.362 million barrels) [6]. - As of the week ending November 12, the total refined oil inventory at the Port of Fujairah in the UAE was 21.181 million barrels, an increase of 3.204 million barrels from the previous week [7]. - As of the week ending November 8, Japan's commercial crude oil inventory decreased by 353,966 kiloliters to 10,379,001 kiloliters [7]. - For the week ending November 7, the API crude oil inventory in the US was 1.3 million barrels (previous value: 6.521 million barrels) [7]. - From October 31 to November 6, both gasoline and diesel inventories decreased. Gasoline was 10.5757 million tons, a 0.4% decrease, and diesel was 12.8962 million tons, a 1.82% decrease. The inventories of both gasoline and diesel from major refineries and local refineries decreased, while those from social sources increased. The comprehensive refining profit of major refineries rebounded, and the comprehensive profit of local refineries fluctuated at a low level [7]. 3.4. Price Data - From November 6 - 12, WTI decreased by $2.55, Brent decreased by $2.45, and Dubai decreased by $1.69. The SC price increased by 7.40, and the Oman price remained unchanged. The price of domestic gasoline increased by 40, and that of domestic diesel increased by 27 [3].
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