大越期货尿素早报-20251113

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The report anticipates that the UR (urea) contract will show a volatile trend today. The industrial demand for urea is neutral, while the agricultural demand is on the rise. International urea prices are strong, and the export expectations have been realized, which boosts the market sentiment. However, the domestic market still has an obvious oversupply situation [4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Urea Overview - Fundamentals: Current daily production and operating rates have rebounded again, and the comprehensive inventory has slightly declined. On the demand side, agricultural demand has increased due to weather conditions, while industrial demand is moderately weak. The operating rate of compound fertilizers is neutral year - on - year, and the operating rate of melamine has declined. The large price difference between domestic and international markets has led to an increase in export volume, and export expectations are gradually being realized, which boosts the market sentiment. The domestic urea market remains in an oversupply situation. The spot price of the delivery product is 1600 (-10), and the overall fundamentals are neutral [4]. - Basis: The basis of the UR2601 contract is -55, with a premium/discount ratio of -3.4%, indicating a bearish signal [4]. - Inventory: The UR comprehensive inventory is 1.657 million tons (-0.7), suggesting a bearish outlook [4]. - Market: The 20 - day moving average of the UR main contract is upward, and the closing price is above the 20 - day line, indicating a bullish signal [4]. - Main Position: The net position of the main UR contract is short, and short positions are increasing, suggesting a bearish outlook [4]. - Expectation: Considering the industrial demand being neutral, agricultural demand rising, international urea prices being strong, and export expectations being realized, which boosts the market sentiment, but with the obvious domestic oversupply, the UR contract is expected to show a volatile trend today [4]. - Leverage and Risks: The bullish factors include strong international prices and rising agricultural demand. The bearish factor is the domestic oversupply. The main logic is based on international prices and domestic demand marginal changes [5]. Spot and Futures Market and Inventory | Category | Details | | --- | --- | | Spot Market | The price of the spot delivery product is 1600 (-10), Shandong spot is 1600 (-10), Henan spot is 1610 (0), and FOB China is 2740 [6]. | | Futures Market | The price of the 01 contract is 1655 (15), the basis is -55 (-25), UR01 is 1655 (15), UR05 is 1728 (11), and UR09 is 1748 (10) [6]. | | Inventory | Warehouse receipts are 6958 (146), UR comprehensive inventory is 1.657 million tons (0), UR manufacturer inventory is 1.578 million tons (0), and UR port inventory is 97,000 tons (0) [6]. | Supply - Demand Balance Sheet | Year | Capacity | Capacity Growth Rate | Output | Net Imports | Import Dependency | Apparent Consumption | Ending Inventory | Actual Consumption | Consumption Growth Rate | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2018 | | 2245.5 | | 1956.81 | 448.38 (18.6%) | 2405.19 | 23.66 | 2405.19 | | | 2019 | | 2445.5 | 8.9% | 2240 | 487.94 (17.9%) | 2727.94 | 37.86 | 2713.74 | 12.8% | | 2020 | | 2825.5 | 15.5% | 2580.98 | 619.12 (19.3%) | 3200.1 | 37.83 | 3200.13 | 17.9% | | 2021 | | 3148.5 | 11.4% | 2927.99 | 352.41 (10.7%) | 3280.4 | 35.72 | 3282.51 | 2.6% | | 2022 | | 3413.5 | 8.4% | 2965.46 | 335.37 (10.2%) | 3300.83 | 44.62 | 3291.93 | 0.3% | | 2023 | | 3893.5 | 14.1% | 3193.59 | 293.13 (8.4%) | 3486.72 | 44.65 | 3486.69 | 5.9% | | 2024 | | 4418.5 | 13.5% | 3425 | 360 (9.5%) | 3785 | 51.4 | 3778.25 | 8.4% | | 2025E | | 4906 | 11.0% | | | | | | | [9] |