大越期货沪铜早报-20251113
Da Yue Qi Huo·2025-11-13 01:50

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core View of the Report - The supply side of copper has disturbances, with smelting enterprises reducing production and the scrap copper policy being relaxed. In October, China's manufacturing production activities slowed down compared to the previous month, and the manufacturing purchasing managers' index (PMI) dropped to 49.0%. The copper price is expected to fluctuate at a high level due to factors such as inventory recovery and geopolitical disturbances [2]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Daily View - Fundamentals: Supply-side disturbances include smelting enterprise production cuts and relaxed scrap copper policies. China's manufacturing PMI in October was 49.0%, indicating a slowdown in production activities. Overall, it is considered neutral [2]. - Basis: The spot price is 86,875, with a basis of 35, showing a premium over futures. It is considered neutral [2]. - Inventory: On November 12, copper inventory remained unchanged at 136,250 tons, and the Shanghai Futures Exchange (SHFE) copper inventory decreased by 1,105 tons to 115,035 tons compared to the previous week. It is considered neutral [2]. - Market Trend: The closing price is above the 20-day moving average, and the 20-day moving average is rising. It is considered bullish [2]. - Main Position: The main net position is long, but the long position is decreasing. It is considered bullish [2]. - Expectation: With inventory recovery and geopolitical disturbances, such as the incident at Indonesia's Grasberg Block Cave mine, the copper price is expected to fluctuate at a high level [2]. Recent利多利空Analysis - Likely Positive Factors: Global policy easing [3]. - Likely Negative Factors: Escalation of the trade war [3]. Supply and Demand Balance - China's copper market is expected to have a slight surplus in 2024 and a tight balance in 2025. Specific data from 2018 - 2024 shows the production, import, export, apparent consumption, actual consumption, and supply-demand balance of copper in China [20][22].