焦煤焦炭早报（2025-11-13）-20251113

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For coking coal, the supply is restricted due to coal mine production resumption at a low - level and many disturbances such as safety inspections. Downstream coking enterprises have slowed down the replenishment rhythm. Although the market price increase atmosphere has cooled, coal mines have firm quotes due to low inventory and pre - sold orders. Considering the coking enterprises' replenishment demand, the short - term coking coal price is expected to remain stable with limited upward space [3]. - For coke, the overall production level of coking enterprises is relatively stable, but the supply has further decreased due to high coal - entering costs and reduced profits. With high raw coal prices, the supply is still tight, and downstream steel mills' purchasing enthusiasm remains. The short - term coke price is expected to remain stable [7]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Daily Viewpoints Coking Coal - Fundamental: Supply is restricted, downstream replenishment slows, but coal mine quotes are firm; bullish [3]. - Basis: Spot price is 1430, basis is 211, spot premium over futures; bullish [3]. - Inventory: Total sample inventory is 1895.4 tons, a decrease of 76.2 tons from last week; bullish [3]. - Disk: 20 - day line is upward, price is below the 20 - day line; neutral [3]. - Main position: Net short position of main coking coal contract, short position decreasing; bearish [3]. - Expectation: Short - term coking coal price is expected to remain stable with limited upward space [3]. - Bullish factors: Rising hot metal output, difficult supply increase [5]. - Bearish factors: Slowed procurement of raw coal by coking and steel enterprises, weak steel prices [5]. Coke - Fundamental: Production is stable, but supply decreases due to high costs and low profits; bullish [7]. - Basis: Spot price is 1690, basis is - 0.5, spot is at a slight discount to futures; neutral [7]. - Inventory: Total sample inventory is 888.4 tons, a decrease of 8.1 tons from last week; bullish [7]. - Disk: 20 - day line is upward, price is below the 20 - day line; neutral [8]. - Main position: Net short position of main coke contract, short position increasing; bearish [8]. - Expectation: Short - term coke price is expected to remain stable [7]. - Bullish factors: Rising hot metal output, synchronous increase in blast furnace operating rate [10]. - Bearish factors: Squeezed profit space of steel mills, partial overdraft of replenishment demand [10]. Price - On November 12 (17:30), the prices of imported coking coal from Russia and Australia at different ports are presented, with some prices having price changes [11]. - On November 12 (17:30), the prices of port metallurgical coke from different regions and of different grades are presented, with some prices having price changes [12]. Inventory Port Inventory - Coking coal port inventory is 295 tons, a decrease of 0.1 tons from last week; coke port inventory is 195.1 tons, an increase of 1 ton from last week [20]. Independent Coking Enterprises' Inventory - Independent coking enterprises' coking coal inventory is 819.3 tons, a decrease of 69.2 tons from last week; coke inventory is 42.5 tons, an increase of 3.5 tons from last week [24]. Steel Mills' Inventory - Steel mills' coking coal inventory is 803.8 tons, an increase of 4.3 tons from last week; coke inventory is 626.7 tons, a decrease of 13.3 tons from last week [29]. Other Data - The capacity utilization rate of 230 independent coking enterprises nationwide is 74.48% [42]. - The average profit per ton of coke of 30 independent coking plants nationwide is 25 yuan [46].