沪镍、不锈钢早报-20251113

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Views - The Shanghai nickel 2512 contract is expected to oscillate weakly and test cost support [2]. - The stainless steel 2601 contract is expected to have a wide - range oscillation around the 20 - day moving average [4]. Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Shanghai Nickel Fundamental Analysis - The external market is under pressure, oscillating around 15,000. Nickel ore prices are firm, while nickel - iron prices continue to decline, and stainless steel inventories have slightly increased. New nickel production capacity is coming online, and some production is being cut. In the short - term, production may decline, but in the long - term, supply remains strong, and inventories are increasing both at home and abroad. The new energy vehicle industry has limited impact on nickel demand. The long - term oversupply situation remains unchanged [2]. Basis - The spot price is 120,450, and the basis is 1,740, indicating a bullish signal [2]. Inventory - LME inventory is 252,114 (-1,194), and the Shanghai Futures Exchange warehouse receipts are 31,824 (-468), showing a bearish signal [2]. Market Chart - The closing price is below the 20 - day moving average, and the 20 - day moving average is downward, suggesting a bearish trend [2]. Main Position - The main position is net short, and short positions are increasing, indicating a bearish outlook [2]. 2. Stainless Steel Fundamental Analysis - The spot price of stainless steel remains unchanged. In the short - term, nickel ore prices are firm, and shipping costs are stable, while nickel - iron prices are falling, and the cost line has further loosened. Stainless steel inventories have slightly increased [4]. Basis - The average price of stainless steel is 13,500, and the basis is 1,015, showing a bullish signal [4]. Inventory - The futures warehouse receipts are 71,436 (-299), indicating a neutral situation [4]. Market Chart - The closing price is below the 20 - day moving average, and the 20 - day moving average is downward, suggesting a bearish trend [4]. 3. Price and Inventory Data Nickel Price - On November 12, the Shanghai nickel main contract was 118,710 (-670), and the LME nickel was 15,010 (-15). Spot prices of various nickel products also declined [12]. Nickel Inventory - As of November 7, the Shanghai Futures Exchange nickel inventory was 37,187 tons, with an increase of 436 tons. On November 12, LME inventory was 252,114 (-1,194), and Shanghai nickel warehouse receipts were 31,824 (-468) [14][15]. Stainless Steel Price - The average price of stainless steel remained unchanged on November 12, and the cold - rolled coil prices in different regions also remained stable [12]. Stainless Steel Inventory - On November 7, the national stainless steel inventory was 103.4 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 0.29 million tons. On November 12, the stainless steel warehouse receipts were 71,436 (-299) [19][20]. 4. Cost - related Data Nickel Ore and Nickel - Iron Price - The prices of red - soil nickel ore CIF remained unchanged on November 12. The price of high - nickel wet tons decreased by 3 yuan/nickel point, while the price of low - nickel wet tons remained unchanged [24]. Stainless Steel Production Cost - The traditional production cost is 12,684, the scrap steel production cost is 12,886, and the low - nickel + pure nickel production cost is 16,454 [26]. Nickel Import Cost - The calculated import price is 120,355 yuan/ton [29].