Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information regarding the report industry investment rating is provided in the given content. 2. Core Viewpoints - The previous trading day saw the Shanghai Zinc futures show a volatile rebound, closing with a positive line. The trading volume shrank, and both long and short positions reduced, with more reduction in long positions. It was a volume - shrinking rebound, indicating that long - position holders were actively exiting while short - position holders were also on the sidelines. The market may experience short - term volatile consolidation. Technically, the price closed above the moving average system with strong support. The short - term KDJ indicator rose and operated in the strong zone, while the trend indicator declined, suggesting a decrease in long - position strength and an increase in short - position strength, with the advantage of long - position holders narrowing. The Shanghai Zinc ZN2512 is expected to have a volatile rebound [19]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Fundamentals - In August 2025, global zinc plate production was 1.1507 million tons, consumption was 1.1717 million tons, resulting in a supply shortage of 21,000 tons. From January to August 2025, global zinc plate production was 9.0885 million tons, consumption was 9.3698 million tons, with a supply shortage of 281,300 tons. In August 2025, global zinc ore production was 1.0696 million tons, and from January to August 2025, it was 8.4457 million tons, presenting a bullish signal [2]. 3.2 Basis - The spot price was 22,760, and the basis was +80, showing a neutral situation [2]. 3.3 Inventory - On November 12, the LME zinc inventory increased by 575 tons to 35,875 tons compared to the previous day, and the Shanghai Futures Exchange zinc inventory warrants increased by 372 tons to 70,890 tons, indicating a bearish factor [2]. 3.4 Market Trends - The previous day, Shanghai Zinc showed a volatile rebound, closing above the 20 - day moving average, with the 20 - day moving average trending upwards, a bullish sign [2]. 3.5 Main Positions - The main positions were net short, and the short positions decreased, which was a bearish signal [2]. 3.6 Futures Market Quotes on November 12 - For different delivery months of zinc futures, details such as opening price, closing price, trading volume, and open interest were provided. For example, for the zn2512 contract, the opening price was 22,565, the closing price was 22,680, the trading volume was 71,426 lots, and the open interest was 105,905 lots with a decrease of 1,570 lots [3]. 3.7 Domestic Spot Market Quotes on November 12 - The domestic spot market quotes included zinc concentrate and zinc ingots. The domestic zinc concentrate spot TC was 2,700 yuan/metal ton, a decrease of 100 yuan/metal ton; the imported zinc concentrate comprehensive TC was 100 US dollars/dry ton, unchanged. The price of 0 zinc in different regions varied, such as 22,760 yuan/ton in Shanghai, 22,530 yuan/ton in Guangdong (a decrease of 50 yuan/ton), 22,655 yuan/ton in Tianjin (a decrease of 40 yuan/ton), and 22,745 yuan/ton in Zhejiang (a decrease of 10 yuan/ton) [4]. 3.8 Zinc Ingot Inventory Statistics in Main Markets - From October 30 to November 10, 2025, the total inventory of zinc ingots in major Chinese markets decreased from 163,200 tons to 161,500 tons. Compared with November 3, the inventory decreased by 800 tons; compared with November 6, it decreased by 100 tons [5]. 3.9 Zinc Warehouse Receipt Report on November 12 - The total zinc warehouse receipts on the futures exchange were 70,890 tons, an increase of 372 tons. Among them, the warehouse receipts in Guangdong increased by 498 tons, while those in Tianjin decreased by 126 tons [6]. 3.10 LME Zinc Inventory Distribution and Statistics on November 12 - The LME zinc inventory had different changes at various locations. The total inventory was 35,875 tons, an increase of 575 tons compared to the previous day. The registered warehouse receipts were 31,950 tons, and the注销 warehouse receipts were 3,925 tons, with a注销 ratio of 10.94% [7]. 3.11 Zinc Concentrate Processing Fees on November 12 - The zinc concentrate processing fees varied by region. For domestic 50% - grade zinc concentrate, the average processing fee was generally around 2,700 yuan/metal ton, with a decrease of 100 - 200 yuan/metal ton in most regions. The imported 48% - grade zinc concentrate processing fee was 100 US dollars/kiloton [17]. 3.12 Shanghai Futures Exchange Member Zinc Trading and Position Ranking on November 12 - For the zn2512 contract, the total trading volume of members was 113,074 lots, a decrease of 11,512 lots. The total long - position volume was 73,076 lots, a decrease of 1,076 lots, and the total short - position volume was 70,165 lots, a decrease of 859 lots. Leading futures companies like CITIC Futures had significant positions in trading volume, long positions, and short positions [18]. 3.13 Domestic Refined Zinc Production in October 2025 - The planned production value in October was 509,600 tons, and the actual production was 524,300 tons, with a month - on - month increase of 4.87% and a year - on - year increase of 18.38%. The production was 2.88% higher than the planned value, and the capacity utilization rate was 73.33%. The planned production for November was 522,300 tons [15].
沪锌期货早报-20251113
Da Yue Qi Huo·2025-11-13 01:50