PTA、MEG早报-20251113

Report Title PTA&MEG Morning Report - November 13, 2025 [1] Core Views - PTA is expected to fluctuate strongly following the cost side in the short term, with attention to device changes [5]. - MEG is expected to fluctuate and consolidate, with obvious upside pressure [7]. Summary by Section 1. PTA Daily View - Fundamentals: PTA futures closed slightly lower yesterday, with a light trading atmosphere in the spot market and fluctuating spot basis. The expected price will follow the cost side to fluctuate strongly in the short term [5]. - Basis: The spot price is 4592, and the basis of the 01 contract is -78, with the futures price higher than the spot price, showing a neutral situation [5]. - Inventory: PTA factory inventory is 4.09 days, an increase of 0.06 days compared to the previous period, which is bearish [5]. - Market Trend: The 20 - day moving average is upward, and the closing price is above the 20 - day moving average, which is bullish [5]. - Main Position: The net short position is decreasing, which is bearish [5]. 2. MEG Daily View - Fundamentals: On Wednesday, the ethylene glycol market price was sorted out at a low level, and the spot basis weakened. The futures price fluctuated widely at night [8]. - Basis: The spot price is 3953, and the basis of the 01 contract is 62, with the spot price higher than the futures price, showing a neutral situation [8]. - Inventory: The ethylene glycol port inventory in East China has risen to around 660,000 tons, and there is still room for further accumulation in the short term, which is bearish [7]. - Market Trend: The 20 - day moving average is downward, and the closing price is below the 20 - day moving average, which is bearish [8]. - Main Position: The net long position is decreasing, which is bullish [7]. 3. Influencing Factors Summary - Positive Factors: Weilian Chemical's 2.5 million - ton capacity reduced its load, and Ineos' 1.1 million - ton and Dushan Energy's 2.5 million - ton capacities stopped production [9]. - Negative Factors: Yisheng Dalian's 3.75 - million - ton capacity restored its load, and Zhongtai's 1.2 million - ton capacity increased its load to 70% [9]. 4. Price - Spot Prices: The price of naphtha CFR Japan increased by 9 to 584.5 dollars/ton; the price of p - xylene (PX) CFR China Taiwan decreased by 17 to 824 dollars/ton; the price of PTA remained unchanged at 4282 yuan/ton; the price of MEG remained unchanged at 3942 yuan/ton [12]. - Futures Prices: TA01 increased by 22 to 4670 yuan/ton; EG01 increased by 16 to 3891 yuan/ton [12]. 5. Inventory Analysis - PTA: The factory inventory available days in China are presented in a long - term data chart [40]. - MEG: The port inventory in East China is presented in a long - term data chart [40]. 6. Profit - PTA Processing Fee: It decreased by 421.295 to 18.18 yuan/ton [12]. - MEG Profits: The profits of various production methods such as naphtha - based MEG all decreased [12]. - Polyester Product Profits: The profits of POY, FDY, DTY, and polyester staple fiber showed different degrees of change [12].