大越期货纯碱早报-20251113

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating The report does not provide an industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints - The fundamentals of soda ash remain weak, with high supply, declining terminal demand, and high inventory levels. The industry's supply - demand mismatch has not been effectively improved. In the short term, soda ash is expected to trade in a range [2][5]. - There are both positive and negative factors affecting the soda ash market. Positive factors include the low - level stabilization and recovery of downstream glass supply, which increases the demand for soda ash. Negative factors include the significant expansion of soda ash production capacity since 2023, high industry production, and the reduction in heavy - alkali downstream photovoltaic glass production, leading to weaker demand for soda ash [3][4]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Daily View - Fundamentals: Alkali plant production is at a high level, and the second - phase project of Yuangxing is expected to be put into operation before the end of the year, with overall supply expected to be abundant. There are supply disturbances in downstream float glass, and the daily melting volume of photovoltaic glass continues to decline. Soda ash plant inventory is at a historical high for the same period [2]. - Basis: The spot price of heavy - quality soda ash in Hebei Shahe is 1,160 yuan/ton, and the closing price of SA2601 is 1,214 yuan/ton, with a basis of - 54 yuan, indicating that the futures price is higher than the spot price [2]. - Inventory: The national soda ash plant inventory is 171,420 tons, an increase of 0.72% from the previous week, and the inventory is above the five - year average [2][34]. - Market: The price is trading below the 20 - day moving average, and the 20 - day moving average is downward [2]. - Main Position: The main position is net short, and short positions are increasing [2]. - Expectation: The fundamentals of soda ash remain weak, and it is expected to trade in a range in the short term [2]. 3.2 Influence Factors - Positive Factors: The low - level stabilization and recovery of downstream glass supply increase the demand for soda ash [3]. - Negative Factors: Since 2023, the production capacity of soda ash has expanded significantly, and there are still large production plans this year. The industry's production is at a historical high for the same period. The reduction in heavy - alkali downstream photovoltaic glass production leads to weaker demand for soda ash [4]. 3.3 Main Logic - The main logic is that the supply of soda ash is at a high level, terminal demand is declining, inventory is at a high level for the same period, and the industry's supply - demand mismatch has not been effectively improved [5]. 3.4 Soda Ash Futures Market | Day Session | Main Contract Closing Price | Heavy - Quality Soda Ash: Shahe Low - End Price | Main Basis | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Previous Value | 1,215 yuan/ton | 1,170 yuan/ton | - 45 yuan | | Current Value | 1,214 yuan/ton | 1,160 yuan/ton | - 54 yuan | | Change Rate | - 0.08% | - 0.85% | 20.00% | [6] 3.5 Soda Ash Spot Market The low - end price of heavy - quality soda ash in the Hebei Shahe market is 1,160 yuan/ton, a decrease of 10 yuan/ton from the previous day [12]. 3.6 Supply - Production Profit: The profit of heavy - quality soda ash produced by the ammonia - soda process in North China is - 103.50 yuan/ton, and the profit of the co - production process in East China is - 212 yuan/ton. The production profit of soda ash is at a historical low [15]. - Operating Rate and Production: The weekly operating rate of the soda ash industry is 85.67%. The weekly production of soda ash is 74,680 tons, including 41,480 tons of heavy - quality soda ash, with production at a historical high [18][20]. - Production Capacity Changes: In 2023, the new production capacity of soda ash was 6.4 million tons; in 2024, it was 1.8 million tons; in 2025, the planned new production capacity is 7.5 million tons, with actual production of 1 million tons [21]. 3.7 Demand - Production and Sales Ratio: The weekly production and sales ratio of soda ash is 98.36% [24]. - Downstream Demand: The daily melting volume of national float glass is 15,910 tons, with an operating rate of 75.92% [27]. 3.8 Inventory The national soda ash plant inventory is 171,420 tons, an increase of 0.72% from the previous week, and the inventory is above the five - year average [34]. 3.9 Supply - Demand Balance Sheet The report provides the annual supply - demand balance sheet of soda ash from 2017 to 2024E, including data on effective production capacity, production, operating rate, imports, exports, net imports, apparent supply, total demand, supply - demand difference, and growth rates [35].