大越期货聚烯烃早报-20251113

Report Information - Report Name: Polyolefin Morning Report - Report Date: November 13, 2025 - Analyst: Jin Zebin from Dayue Futures Investment Consulting Department [2][3] Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints - The LLDPE and PP markets are expected to show weak and volatile trends today due to oversupply, with neutral to high industrial inventories and fluctuating crude oil prices [4][6] Summary by Related Catalogs LLDPE Overview - Fundamentals: In October, the official PMI was 49, down 0.8 points from the previous month, indicating a decline in manufacturing sentiment. After the China-US leaders' meeting, the US lifted some restrictions on Chinese goods, and OPEC+ announced a suspension of production increases in Q1 2026, causing oil prices to fluctuate. The peak demand season for agricultural films continues, but restocking for other films is ending. The current LLDPE delivery spot price is 6840 (+20), with overall bearish fundamentals [4] - Basis: The basis of the LLDPE 2601 contract is 52, with a premium ratio of 0.8%, indicating a bullish signal [4] - Inventory: The comprehensive PE inventory is 579,000 tons (+39,000), which is bearish [4] - Market: The 20-day moving average of the LLDPE main contract is downward, and the closing price is below the 20-day line, showing a bearish trend [4] - Main Position: The net long position of the LLDPE main contract is increasing, which is bullish [4] - Expectation: The LLDPE main contract is expected to show a weak and volatile trend today [4] - Likely Factors: Bullish factors include new sanctions on Russian oil leading to a rebound in oil prices and a phased easing in China-US talks; bearish factors are weak year-on-year demand and significant new production capacity in Q4 [5] PP Overview - Fundamentals: Similar to LLDPE, the manufacturing sentiment declined in October. After the China-US leaders' meeting and OPEC+ announcement, oil prices fluctuated. The demand for plastic weaving is supported by the peak season, and the demand for pipes is improving. The current PP delivery spot price is 6470 (-0), with overall bearish fundamentals [6] - Basis: The basis of the PP 2601 contract is 10, with a premium ratio of 0.2%, considered neutral [6] - Inventory: The comprehensive PP inventory is 620,000 tons (+20,000), which is bearish [6] - Market: The 20-day moving average of the PP main contract is downward, and the closing price is below the 20-day line, showing a bearish trend [6] - Main Position: The net short position of the PP main contract is decreasing, still bearish [6] - Expectation: The PP main contract is expected to show a weak and volatile trend today [6] - Likely Factors: Similar to LLDPE, bullish factors are new sanctions on Russian oil and a phased easing in China-US talks; bearish factors are weak year-on-year demand and significant new production capacity in Q4 [7] Spot and Futures Market Data - LLDPE: The spot delivery price is 6840 (+20), the 01 contract price is 6788 (+28), the basis is 52 (-8), the import price in US dollars is 813 (unchanged), the import conversion price is 7114 (unchanged), and the import spread is -274 (+20). The warehouse receipt is 12,067 (-6), the PE comprehensive factory inventory is 579,000 tons (+39,000), and the social inventory is 500,000 tons (-100,000) [8] - PP: The spot delivery price is 6470 (unchanged), the 01 contract price is 6460 (+31), the basis is 10 (-31), the import price in US dollars is 765 (unchanged), the import conversion price is 6702 (unchanged), and the import spread is -232 (unchanged). The warehouse receipt is 14,642 (+13), the PP comprehensive factory inventory is 620,000 tons (+20,000), and the social inventory is 324,000 tons (-9,000) [8] Supply and Demand Balance Sheets - Polyethylene: From 2018 - 2024, the production capacity, output, and apparent consumption generally showed an upward trend, while the import dependence gradually decreased. In 2025E, the production capacity is expected to reach 4,319.5 [13] - Polypropylene: From 2018 - 2024, the production capacity, output, and apparent consumption also generally increased, and the import dependence decreased. In 2025E, the production capacity is expected to reach 4,906 [15]