白糖早报-20251113

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating The report does not provide an overall investment rating for the sugar industry. 2. Core View - In the short - term, the domestic Zhengzhou sugar (Zheng sugar) is relatively resistant to decline compared to the continuously falling international sugar prices, and the near - term contracts of Zheng sugar are stronger than the far - term ones, which may be related to the high spot price of new sugar. However, in the long - run, the divergence between domestic and international sugar price trends is unsustainable. For short - sellers, it is recommended to lay out short positions on the 05 contract when the price rises as the 01 contract approaches delivery [4]. - There are both bullish and bearish factors in the sugar market. Bullish factors include good domestic consumption, reduced inventory, increased syrup tariffs, and the change of the US cola formula to use sucrose. Bearish factors are the increase in global sugar production, expected supply surplus in the new season, the international sugar price dropping to around 14 cents per pound, and the opening of the import profit window leading to increased import pressure [6]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Previous Day's Review There is no content related to the previous day's review in the provided text. 3.2 Daily Tips - Fundamentals: Different institutions have different forecasts for the 25/26 global sugar supply. DATAGRO expects the surplus to decrease from 280 million tons to 100 million tons; Czarnikow raises the surplus forecast to 740 million tons; StoneX predicts a surplus of 277 million tons; ISO estimates a supply gap of 23.1 million tons, which is significantly reduced compared to the previous forecast. As of the end of August 2025, the cumulative sugar production in the 24/25 season was 1.11621 billion tons, and the cumulative sugar sales were 1 billion tons, with a sales rate of 89.6%. In September 2025, China imported 550,000 tons of sugar, a year - on - year increase of 150,000 tons, and the total import of syrup and premixed powder was 151,400 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 135,100 tons [4]. - Basis: The spot price in Liuzhou is 5,730 yuan, and the basis for the 01 contract is 252 yuan, indicating a premium over the futures price, which is a bullish signal [5]. - Inventory: As of the end of August 2024/25 season, the industrial inventory was 1.16 million tons, which is considered neutral. The state reserve inventory is about 7 million tons, and the import quota is 1.945 million tons [5][8]. - Market Trend: The 20 - day moving average is upward, and the K - line is above the 20 - day moving average, showing a bullish trend [5]. - Main Position: The net short position is decreasing, and the main trend is bearish [4]. 3.3 Today's Focus There is no content related to today's focus in the provided text. 3.4 Fundamental Data - Supply - Demand Forecast: Different institutions have different forecasts for the 25/26 global sugar supply - demand situation. ISO expects the supply gap to narrow to 200,000 tons; StoneX predicts a surplus of 2.77 million tons; Czarnikow estimates a surplus of 6.2 million tons (or 7.5 million tons in another mention); Datagro forecasts a surplus of 1.53 million tons; Covrig Analytics expects a surplus of 4.2 million tons; Alvean/Louis Dreyfus predicts a surplus of 400,000 tons; Green Pool expects a surplus of 1.15 million tons [34]. - Domestic Sugar Supply - Demand Balance Sheet: In the 2025/26 season, the sugar production is expected to increase from 11.2 million tons in the October forecast to 11.7 million tons in the November forecast, while the consumption is expected to be 15.7 million tons, and the import is estimated to be 5 million tons, with a surplus change of 820,000 tons. The international sugar price is expected to be in the range of 14.0 - 18.5 cents per pound, and the domestic sugar price is expected to be in the range of 5,500 - 6,000 yuan per ton [36]. - Import Cost: In late October 2025, the average price of raw sugar was about 14.23 cents per pound, and the cost of out - of - quota imported sugar after tax was about 5,086 yuan per ton, with considerable import profit due to the continuous decline of the international sugar price [42]. 3.5 Position Data There is no specific content related to position data other than the information about the main position mentioned above.