大越期货油脂早报-20251113

Report Information - Report Title: Grease Morning Report - Date: 2025-11-13 - Analyst: Wang Mingwei -从业资格号: F0283029 - Investment Consultation Number: Z0010442 - TEL: 0575-85226759 [1] Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Core Viewpoints - The price of fats and oils is expected to fluctuate and consolidate. The domestic fundamentals are loose, and the domestic supply of fats and oils is stable. Sino-US relations are stalemated, the export of new US soybeans is frustrated, and prices are under pressure. Malaysian palm oil inventory is neutral, demand has improved, Indonesia's B40 policy promotes domestic consumption, and the B50 plan is expected to be implemented in 2026. The domestic fundamentals of fats and oils are neutral, and import inventory is stable [2][3][4] Summary by Related Catalogs Daily View - Soybean Oil - Fundamentals: The MPOB report shows that in August, Malaysian palm oil production decreased by 9.8% month-on-month to 1.62 million tons, exports decreased by 14.74% month-on-month to 1.49 million tons, and the end-of-month inventory decreased by 2.6% month-on-month to 1.83 million tons. The report is neutral, and the production cut is less than expected. Currently, shipping survey agencies show that the export data of Malaysian palm oil this month has increased by 4% month-on-month. Subsequently, entering the production cut season, the supply pressure of palm oil will decrease. [2] - Basis: The spot price of soybean oil is 8470, the basis is 182, and the spot price is at a premium to the futures price. [2] - Inventory: On September 22, the commercial inventory of soybean oil was 1.18 million tons, compared with 1.16 million tons previously, a month-on-month increase of 20,000 tons and a year-on-year increase of 11.7%. [2] - Market: The futures price is running below the 20-day moving average, and the 20-day moving average is downward. [2] - Main Position: The long positions of the main soybean oil contract increased. [2] - Expectation: Soybean oil Y2601 is expected to fluctuate in the range of 8050 - 8450. [2] Daily View - Palm Oil - Fundamentals: Similar to soybean oil, the MPOB report is neutral with a less-than-expected production cut. Currently, the export data has increased month-on-month, and subsequently entering the production increase season, the supply of palm oil will increase. [3] - Basis: The spot price of palm oil is 8700, the basis is 44, and the spot price is at a discount to the futures price. [3] - Inventory: On September 22, the port inventory of palm oil was 580,000 tons, compared with 570,000 tons previously, a month-on-month increase of 10,000 tons and a year-on-year decrease of 34.1%. [3] - Market: The futures price is running below the 20-day moving average, and the 20-day moving average is downward. [3] - Main Position: The long positions of the main palm oil contract increased. [3] - Expectation: Palm oil P2601 is expected to fluctuate in the range of 8500 - 8900. [3] Daily View - Rapeseed Oil - Fundamentals: Similar to soybean oil and palm oil, the MPOB report is neutral with a less-than-expected production cut. Currently, the export data has increased month-on-month, and subsequently entering the production increase season, the supply of palm oil will increase. [4] - Basis: The spot price of rapeseed oil is 10186, the basis is 346, and the spot price is at a premium to the futures price. [4] - Inventory: On September 22, the commercial inventory of rapeseed oil was 560,000 tons, compared with 550,000 tons previously, a month-on-month increase of 10,000 tons and a year-on-year increase of 3.2%. [4] - Market: The futures price is running above the 20-day moving average, and the 20-day moving average is upward. [4] - Main Position: The long positions of the main rapeseed oil contract increased. [4] - Expectation: Rapeseed oil OI2601 is expected to fluctuate in the range of 9600 - 10000. [4] Recent利多利空Analysis - 利多: The US soybean stock-to-use ratio remains around 4%, indicating tight supply. [5] - 利空: The price of fats and oils is historically high, and the domestic inventory of fats and oils continues to accumulate. The macroeconomy is weak, and the expected production of related fats and oils is high. [5] - Main Logic: The global fundamentals of fats and oils are relatively loose. [5]