Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The expectation of the US government reopening is high, with economic data cooling in advance and the expectation of interest rate cuts rising again, leading to an increase in gold and silver prices. The end of the US government shutdown is optimistically expected, risk appetite is recovering, and gold and silver prices are showing strength. COMEX silver has seen large short - term trading orders around 2 am for four consecutive days, and its price may fluctuate significantly [4][5]. Summary by Directory 1. Previous Day's Review - Gold: The US government is expected to reopen, economic data cooling expectations are ahead, and interest rate cut expectations are rising again, causing the gold price to increase. The US three major stock indexes closed with mixed results, European three major stock indexes closed up across the board, US bond yields were mixed, the 10 - year US bond yield remained flat at 4.067%, the US dollar index fell 0.01% to 99.47, the offshore RMB appreciated slightly against the US dollar to 7.1125, and COMEX gold futures rose 2.07% to $4201.4 per ounce. The basis is - 2.9, with the spot at a discount to the futures. Gold futures warehouse receipts increased by 1800 kilograms to 89616 kilograms. The 20 - day moving average is downward, and the K - line is above the 20 - day moving average. The main net position is long, and the main long positions decreased [4]. - Silver: Similar to gold, the silver price soared. COMEX silver futures rose 4.90% to $53.23 per ounce. The basis is 0, with the spot at a discount to the futures. The Shanghai silver futures warehouse receipts decreased by 8824 kilograms to 583060 kilograms. The 20 - day moving average is upward, and the K - line is above the 20 - day moving average. The main net position is long, and the main long positions increased [5]. 2. Daily Tips - Gold: The US government's reopening expectation, economic data cooling, and interest rate cut expectations are the main factors affecting the gold price. The premium of Shanghai gold has converged to - 3 yuan/gram. The optimistic expectation of the end of the US government shutdown, the recovery of risk appetite, and the return of interest rate cut expectations make the gold price strong [4]. - Silver: The silver price has shown an abnormal increase, with a significant increase in positions. COMEX silver has seen large short - term trading orders around 2 am for four consecutive days, and the silver price may fluctuate significantly. The silver premium has converged to 250 yuan/gram. The end of the US government shutdown is optimistically expected, risk appetite is recovering, and the silver price remains strong under the push of funds [5]. 3. Today's Focus - 08:00: The US House of Representatives will vote on the draft to end the government shutdown. - 08:30: Australia's October employment report (including employment population and unemployment rate). - Time TBD: The 2025 6G Development Conference will be held in Beijing Economic - Technological Development Area from November 13 - 14. - 15:00: The Chinese Ministry of Commerce will hold its second regular press conference in November, and the UK's preliminary GDP for the third quarter will be released. - 17:00: The International Energy Agency (IEA) will release its monthly crude oil market report, the European Central Bank will release an economic report, and the Governing Council member of the European Central Bank and the Governor of the Bank of France will speak. - 20:00: Greene, a member of the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) of the Bank of England, will speak. - 21:00: Daly, the President of the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco (a voting member of the FOMC in 2027), will talk about balance sheet management, and Elderson, an Executive Board member of the European Central Bank, will speak. - 23:30: Kashkari, the President of the Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis (a voting member of the FOMC in 2026), will speak. - Next day 01:15: Musalem, the President of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis (a voting member of the FOMC in 2025), will participate in a fireside chat related to monetary policy. - Next day 01:20: Hammack, the President of the Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland (a voting member of the FOMC in 2026), will participate in a discussion. - Next day 01:30: Tschudin of the Swiss National Bank will speak at a money market event in Geneva. - Next day 04:10: Prasanna Gai, a member of the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) of the Reserve Bank of New Zealand, will speak. - Next day 06:10: McPhee, an Assistant Governor of the Reserve Bank of Australia, will participate in a fireside chat [15]. 4. Fundamental Data - Gold: The logic is that after Trump took office, the world entered a period of extreme turmoil and change, and the inflation expectation has shifted to the economic recession expectation, making it difficult for the gold price to fall. However, the latter two of the three major factors (US government shutdown, Federal Reserve interest rate cut, and Sino - US tariff escalation concerns) have significantly improved or even reversed, and the support for the gold price has weakened significantly [9]. - Silver: The silver price still mainly follows the gold price. The tariff concern has a stronger impact on the silver price, and the silver price is prone to an enlarged increase. The factors affecting the silver price include both positive and negative aspects. Positive factors are global turmoil, significant shadow Federal Reserve, continued interest rate cut expectations, tense situations in Russia - Ukraine and the Middle East leading to rising inflation, and the support from the photovoltaic and technology sectors. Negative factors are the rising expectation of stopping interest rate cuts, large differences within the Federal Reserve, less - than - expected European fiscal expansion, the US standing out again, the deterioration of risk preference, and the expectation of Russia - Ukraine cease - fire negotiations [13][14]. 5. Position Data - Gold: The main net position is long, and the main long positions decreased. The long positions of the top 20 in Shanghai gold decreased by 2966 to 168369, the short positions decreased by 453 to 70081, and the net position decreased by 2513 to 98288. The SPDR gold ETF position has increased in a fluctuating manner [4][31][35]. - Silver: The main net position is long, and the main long positions increased. The long positions of the top 20 in Shanghai silver increased by 19974 to 387780, the short positions increased by 9470 to 265083, and the net position increased by 10504 to 122697. The silver ETF position is fluctuating and still higher than the same period in the past two years [5][33][38].
贵金属早报-20251113
Da Yue Qi Huo·2025-11-13 01:59