大越期货玻璃早报-20251113

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core View of the Report - The glass market has a weak fundamental situation, with production profit repair being sluggish, supply at a historically low level for the same period, downstream deep - processing orders being generally weak and below the previous year's level, and real - estate terminal demand being weak with high inventory. The short - term expectation is for the glass market to operate in a weak and volatile manner [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Glass Futures Market - The closing price of the main glass futures contract decreased from 1053 yuan/ton to 1049 yuan/ton, a decline of 0.38%. The spot price of Shahe Safety large - board glass remained unchanged at 1036 yuan/ton. The main basis increased from - 17 yuan/ton to - 13 yuan/ton, a change of - 23.53% [5]. 3.2 Glass Spot Market - The market price of 5mm white glass large - board in the spot benchmark area of Hebei Shahe was 1036 yuan/ton, remaining the same as the previous day [10]. 3.3 Fundamental Analysis - Cost Side - There is no specific content about the cost - side analysis other than the mention of glass production profit, but no detailed data is provided. 3.4 Fundamental Analysis - Supply - The number of operating national float glass production lines is 222, with an operating rate of 75.92%, and the daily melting volume is 15.91 tons, both at historically low levels for the same period. Influenced by policies such as "anti - involution" and environmental protection, there has been capacity clearance in the float glass industry, and production losses have occurred due to "coal - to - gas" conversion in the Shahe area and cold repairs in the industry [21][23]. 3.5 Fundamental Analysis - Demand - Real - estate terminal demand remains weak, and the number of orders from glass deep - processing enterprises is at a historical low for the same period. The capital collection situation in the deep - processing industry is not optimistic, and traders and processors are cautious, mainly focusing on consuming raw glass inventory [4]. 3.6 Fundamental Analysis - Inventory - The inventory of national float glass enterprises is 63.136 million weight boxes, a decrease of 4.03% from the previous week, and the inventory is above the five - year average [42]. 3.7 Fundamental Analysis - Supply - Demand Balance Sheet - The supply - demand balance sheet shows production, consumption, and other data from 2017 to 2024E. For example, in 2024E, the production is expected to be 55.1 million tons, the consumption is 53.1 million tons, and the production growth rate is 3.94%, while the consumption growth rate is - 1.15% [43]. 3.8 Factors Affecting the Market - Positive Factors: Under the influence of "anti - involution" and environmental protection policies, there has been capacity clearance in the float glass industry, and production losses have occurred due to "coal - to - gas" conversion in the Shahe area and cold repairs in the industry [3]. - Negative Factors: The main logic is that glass supply has stabilized and rebounded at a low level, the downstream's phased replenishment has ended, and the glass factory's inventory has increased. It is expected that the glass market will operate in a weak and volatile manner at a low level. The risk point is that the intensity of the "anti - involution" policy may exceed expectations [3].