原木期货日报-20251113

Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core View of the Report - In the context of a weak supply - demand pattern, the log futures market is expected to continue its weak and volatile operation. The supply of logs is expected to increase this week, and the spot price is declining, putting pressure on the market. However, the current futures price is relatively low, and the significant inversion between domestic and foreign prices provides some support from import costs, limiting the downside space of the futures price [2][3] 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures and Spot Prices - Futures Prices: On November 12, 2025, the prices of log futures contracts showed minor fluctuations. For example, the price of log 2601 was 778.5 yuan/cubic meter, up 2 yuan/cubic meter from the previous day, with a daily increase of 0.26%. The price of log 2603 was 792.5 yuan/cubic meter, up 1 yuan/cubic meter, with a daily increase of 0.13%. The price of log 2605 was 812 yuan/cubic meter, up 1.5 yuan/cubic meter, with a daily increase of 0.19%. The price of log 2511 remained unchanged at 740 yuan/cubic meter [1] - Spot Prices: The spot prices of various types of logs in ports such as Rizhao and Taicang remained stable on November 12, 2025, with no price changes compared to the previous day. For instance, the price of 3.9A small - sized radiata pine in Rizhao Port was 700 yuan/cubic meter, and the price of 4A small - sized radiata pine in Taicang Port was 710 yuan/cubic meter [1] - Foreign Quotes: As of November 14 and November 7, the CFR prices of radiata pine 4 - meter medium A and spruce 11.8 - meter remained unchanged at 116 US dollars/JAS cubic meter and 126 euros/JAS cubic meter respectively [1] - Cost Calculation: On November 12, 2025, the RMB - US dollar exchange rate was 7.121 yuan, down 0.003 from the previous day, with a decrease of 0%. The import theoretical cost was 811.82 yuan, down 0.34 yuan from the previous day, with a decrease of 0% [1] 3.2 Supply - Monthly Supply: In October 2025, the port throughput was 201.3 million cubic meters, an increase of 24.7 million cubic meters from September, with a growth rate of 13.99%. The number of ships arriving at the port from New Zealand to China, Japan, and South Korea increased from 46 to 54, with a growth rate of 17.39% [1] - Weekly Forecast: From November 10 - 16, 2025, the number of pre - arriving New Zealand log ships at 13 Chinese ports was 12, a decrease of 4 from the previous week, with a week - on - week decrease of 25%. The total arrival volume was about 39.5 million cubic meters, a decrease of 13.6 million cubic meters from the previous week, with a week - on - week decrease of 26% [2] 3.3 Inventory - Weekly Inventory: As of November 7, 2025, the total inventory of logs in major Chinese ports was 293 million cubic meters, an increase of 5 million cubic meters from October 31, with a growth rate of 1.74%. In Shandong, the inventory was 191.5 million cubic meters, an increase of 3.2 million cubic meters, with a growth rate of 1.70%. In Jiangsu, the inventory was 82.45 million cubic meters, an increase of 0.2 million cubic meters, with a growth rate of 0.24% [1][2] 3.4 Demand - Weekly Demand: As of November 7, 2025, the daily average log出库 volume in China was 6.63 million cubic meters, an increase of 0.35 million cubic meters from October 31, with a growth rate of 6%. In Shandong, it was 3.79 million cubic meters, an increase of 0.6 million cubic meters, with a growth rate of 19%. In Jiangsu, it was 2.28 million cubic meters, a decrease of 0.15 million cubic meters, with a decrease rate of - 6% [2]