建信期货多晶硅日报-20251113

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - There is no information about the report industry investment rating in the provided content. Group 2: Core View of the Report - The polysilicon market lacks the internal driving force for supply - demand improvement, and the fundamentals remain weakly - realistic. The spot price is expected to fluctuate, and the futures price will mainly remain in high - level fluctuations [4]. Group 3: Summary According to the Directory 1. Market Performance and Outlook - The price of the polysilicon main contract was weak first and then strong. The closing price of the PS2601 contract was 53,460 yuan/ton, with a gain of 0.43%. The trading volume was 413,154 lots, and the open interest was 140,617 lots, with a net increase of 2,149 lots [4]. - The transaction price range of polysilicon n - type re -投料 was 49,000 - 55,000 yuan/ton, with an average transaction price of 53,200 yuan/ton, remaining flat month - on - month. The transaction price range of n - type granular silicon was 50,000 - 51,000 yuan/ton, with an average transaction price of 50,500 yuan/ton, also remaining flat month - on - month [4]. - In October, the output was 137,000 tons. In November, there is an expectation of production cuts in the southwest production area, with the monthly output expected to be around 120,000 tons. The realization degree of production cuts needs to be observed under the current profit improvement conditions. The output of silicon wafers and solar cells remains stable at 55 - 60GW, but the terminal demand has entered a trough after the "rush - to - install" period and there is no optimistic repair expectation. The industrial chain profit is currently concentrated in the silicon material end, and the downstream silicon wafer and component prices have loosened recently, so there is great resistance to spot price increases [4]. 2. Market News - On November 12, the number of polysilicon warehouse receipts was 9,850 lots, remaining the same as the previous trading day [5]. - In September 2025, the newly - installed photovoltaic capacity was 9.66GW, a month - on - month increase of 31.25%. From January to September, the cumulative newly - installed photovoltaic capacity was 240.27GW [5]. - The China Photovoltaic Industry Association stated that the rumors on the Internet are all false information. The association and enterprises in the industry are working together, and relevant work is progressing steadily [5].