建信期货棉花日报-20251113

Industry - The industry under research is cotton [1] Report Date - The report was released on November 13, 2025 [2] Researchers - The researchers include Yu Lanlan, Lin Zhenlei, Wang Haifeng, Hong Chenliang, and Liu Youran [3] Core Viewpoints - Zhengzhou cotton is in a state of oscillatory adjustment. The latest cotton price index for grade 328 is 14,851 yuan/ton, up 9 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The spot market shows different price ranges and basis levels for different cotton qualities. The overall trading in the pure cotton yarn market is marginally weakening, with new orders insufficient and differentiation among varieties. The profit of weaving factories is around the break - even line. Some local all - cotton grey cloth prices have increased, and the overall price is stable. The shipment of all - cotton weaving factories has increased locally, and the inventory has decreased. Internationally, the US government shutdown crisis shows signs of improvement, and the NASS monthly supply - demand report is scheduled for November 14. Domestically, the seed cotton purchase is gradually ending, the purchase price has declined from the peak, and the market is concerned about changes in production expectations. The import of US cotton may pick up. As of the end of October, the commercial cotton inventory level is slightly higher than that of last year. The downstream terminal demand remains tepid but has some resilience, and there has been a marginal improvement in local downstream demand recently. The textile and clothing export in October declined both year - on - year and month - on - month, but the weekly data shows that the operating rate of textile enterprises has increased slightly and the finished product inventory has decreased. The supply pressure is increasing during the peak season of new cotton listing and processing [7][8] Section Summaries 1. Market Review and Operation Suggestions - Market Review: For futures contracts, CF2601 closed at 13,570 yuan/ton, down 0.48% from the previous trading day, with a trading volume of 255,193 lots and an open interest of 564,881 lots, a decrease of 9,024 lots. CF2605 closed at 13,580 yuan/ton, down 0.41%, with a trading volume of 8,345 lots and an open interest of 264,282 lots, an increase of 2,505 lots. CF2609 closed at 13,745 yuan/ton, down 0.33%, with a trading volume of 280 lots and an open interest of 6,169 lots, an increase of 54 lots. In the spot market, the 328 - grade cotton price index is 14,851 yuan/ton, up 9 yuan/ton. The price of machine - picked cotton in northern Xinjiang is mainly between 14,600 - 14,800 yuan/ton (gross weight), and the basis is in different ranges. The basis of grade 41 machine - picked cotton in northern Xinjiang is mainly above CF01 + 900 [7] - Analysis of Market Conditions: The international market is waiting for the US NASS monthly supply - demand report. Domestically, the seed cotton purchase is approaching the end, the purchase price has dropped, and the market is concerned about production expectations. The import of US cotton may increase. The downstream demand is tepid but has some resilience, and the operating rate of textile enterprises has increased slightly while the inventory has decreased [8] 2. Industry News - From November 3 - 9, the large - scale machine - picking of cotton in Xinjiang was basically completed. Picking in northern Xinjiang has ended, and the purchase volume is scarce. Picking in southern Xinjiang is in the final stage. As the picking nears the end, the quality of seed cotton has declined from the peak, and the purchase price has also decreased. The machine - picked cotton purchase price is mostly between 6.1 - 6.3 yuan/kg, and the high - quality seed cotton purchase price remains around 6.4 - 6.5 yuan/kg. The purchase price of hand - picked cotton in Xinjiang has also slightly decreased, ranging from 6.8 - 7.1 yuan/kg. As of 24:00 on November 11, the cumulative public inspection of cotton in Xinjiang in the 25/26 season was 260,000 tons, and the national cumulative public inspection was 2.62 million tons [9][10] 3. Data Overview - The report provides multiple data charts, including those related to the Chinese cotton price index, cotton spot price, cotton futures price, cotton basis change, CF1 - 5 spread, CF5 - 9 spread, CF9 - 1 spread, cotton commercial inventory, cotton industrial inventory, warehouse receipt volume, US dollar - RMB exchange rate, and US dollar - Indian rupee exchange rate [17][18][19][21][29][31]