Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Views - Methanol: The current situation remains poor. Iranian plant shutdowns are slower than expected, and November is likely to see high imports. The contradiction in the 01 contract is difficult to resolve. The issue of port sanctions is expected to be resolved before the end of gas restrictions, but inventory reduction is difficult. Methanol has limited upside potential, and the downside space depends on the situation in the inland region. Recently, coal prices have strengthened, but it does not affect profits [1]. - Polyethylene: The inventory of Sinopec and PetroChina is neutral year - on - year. The upstream (Sinopec and PetroChina) and coal - chemical industries are reducing inventory, while social inventory remains flat. Downstream inventory of raw materials and finished products is neutral. Overall inventory is neutral. The 09 basis is around - 110 in North China and - 50 in East China. The import profit is around - 200, with no further increase for now. The price of non - standard HD injection molding is stable, and other price differentials are fluctuating, with LD weakening. Domestic linear production has decreased recently. Attention should be paid to LL - HD conversion and US quotations. New device pressure is high in 2025, and the commissioning of new devices should be monitored [6]. - PP: The upstream (Sinopec and PetroChina) and mid - stream of polypropylene are reducing inventory. In terms of valuation, the basis is - 60, non - standard price differentials are neutral, and the import profit is around - 700. Exports have been good this year. Non - standard price differentials are neutral. European and American markets are stable. PDH profit is around - 400, propylene prices are fluctuating, and powder production starts are stable. The proportion of drawing production is neutral. Future supply is expected to increase slightly. Downstream orders are average currently, and raw material and finished product inventories are neutral. Under the background of over - capacity, the 01 contract is expected to face moderately excessive pressure. If exports continue to increase or there are many PDH device overhauls, the supply pressure can be alleviated to a neutral level [6]. - PVC: The basis of the 01 contract is maintained at - 270, and the ex - factory basis is - 480. Downstream operating rates are seasonally weakening, and the willingness to hold inventory at low prices is strong. Mid - and upstream inventories are continuously accumulating. In summer, Northwest plants have seasonal overhauls, and the load center is between the spring overhaul and the high production in Q1. In Q4, attention should be paid to the commissioning of new plants and the sustainability of exports. Recent export orders have declined slightly. Coal sentiment is positive, and the cost of semi - coke is stable. The profit of calcium carbide is under pressure due to PVC overhauls. The FOB counter - offer for caustic soda exports is 380. PVC comprehensive profit is - 100. Currently, the contradiction of static inventory is accumulating slowly, costs are stable, downstream performance is average, and the macro - environment is neutral. Attention should be paid to exports, coal prices, commercial housing sales, terminal orders, and operating rates [6]. 3. Summary by Commodity Methanol - Price Data: From November 6th to 12th, the price of thermal coal futures remained at 801. The prices of Jiangsu and South China spot, and other regional converted prices had certain fluctuations. For example, the Jiangsu spot price increased from 2088 on November 6th to 2082 on November 12th. The import profit and other indicators also changed slightly [1]. - View: The current situation is poor, with high imports expected in November. Inventory reduction is difficult, and the upside of methanol is limited. The downside depends on the inland region, and coal price strengthening does not affect profits [1]. Polyethylene - Price Data: From November 6th to 12th, the price of Northeast Asian ethylene remained at 740. The prices of North China LL, East China LL, etc. had certain changes. For example, the East China LL price increased from 6975 on November 6th to 7000 on November 12th. The two - oil inventory decreased from 69 on November 6th to 67 on November 7th and then continued to change [6]. - View: The overall inventory is neutral. The 09 basis varies in different regions. The import profit is around - 200 with no further increase. Non - standard HD injection molding price is stable, and LD is weakening. Domestic linear production has decreased recently. Attention should be paid to various factors such as new device commissioning [6]. PP - Price Data: From November 6th to 12th, the price of Shandong propylene and Northeast Asian propylene had certain fluctuations. The prices of East China PP, North China PP, etc. also changed. For example, the East China PP price increased from 6320 on November 6th to 6365 on November 12th. The two - oil inventory and other indicators also had corresponding changes [6]. - View: The upstream and mid - stream are reducing inventory. The basis, non - standard price differentials, and import profit are in a certain state. Exports are good. Future supply is expected to increase slightly, and attention should be paid to factors such as new device commissioning and PDH device overhauls [6]. PVC - Price Data: From November 6th to 12th, the price of Northwest calcium carbide remained at 2400. The prices of calcium carbide - based PVC in different regions and other indicators had certain changes. For example, the calcium carbide - based PVC price in Northwest decreased from 4320 on November 6th to 4250 on November 11th [6]. - View: The basis is at a certain level. Downstream operating rates are weakening, and mid - and upstream inventories are accumulating. Attention should be paid to factors such as new device commissioning, exports, and cost changes [6].
甲醇聚烯烃早报-20251113
Yong An Qi Huo·2025-11-13 02:18