建信期货油脂日报-20251113

Report Overview - Report Date: November 13, 2025 [2] - Reported Industry: Oil and Fat [1] - Research Team: Agricultural Products Research Team [4] - Researchers: Yu Lanlan, Lin Zhenlei, Wang Haifeng, Hong Chenliang, Liu Youran [3] 1. Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core View - The oil and fat market has stabilized and rebounded, with rapeseed oil showing the strongest performance. Rapeseed oil inventory is decreasing, and attention should be paid to Australian rapeseed arrivals and China-Canada relations. Soybean oil has limited downside space and has buying value but is restricted by high inventory in the short term. Palm oil is expected to see reduced production and inventory starting from November. The oil and fat sector has rebounded from a low level, and trading should focus on band buying [7]. 3. Summary by Section 3.1 Market Review and Operation Suggestions - Quotes: Dongguan rapeseed oil traders' quotes are 01+620 for third-grade rapeseed oil and 01+720 for first-grade rapeseed oil. The basis price of first-grade soybean oil in the East China market is 01+270 in November and 01+280 from December to January. Guangdong palm oil traders' quotes are stable, with 18-degree palm oil at 01+120 (Guangzhou warehouse and Dongguan warehouse), 24-degree at 01 - 20 (Dongguan warehouse), and 28-degree at 01 - 20 (Dongguan warehouse) [7]. - Market Analysis: Rapeseed oil inventory is decreasing due to interrupted imports and suspended crushing. Soybean oil has limited downside space but is restricted by high inventory. Palm oil is expected to reduce production and inventory starting from November [7]. - Operation Suggestion: Focus on band buying [7]. 3.2 Industry News - Malaysian Palm Oil Production: From November 1 - 10, Malaysian palm oil production decreased by 2.16% month-on-month, with fresh fruit bunch (FFB) yield decreasing by 4.14% and oil extraction rate (OER) decreasing by 0.4% [10]. - Domestic Palm Oil Inventory: As of the end of the 45th week of 2025, the total domestic palm oil inventory was 55.2 million tons, a decrease of 0.3 million tons from the previous week; the contract volume was 4.2 million tons, a decrease of 0.3 million tons. The inventory of 24-degree and below palm oil was 53.3 million tons, a decrease of 0.5 million tons, and the high-degree palm oil inventory was 2.0 million tons, an increase of 0.3 million tons [10]. - MPOB Report: In October, Malaysian palm oil inventory increased by 4.4% to 2.46 billion tons, production increased by 11.02% to 2.04 billion tons, and exports increased by 18.58% to 1.69 billion tons. The surveyed October inventory was expected to be 2.44 billion tons, and production was expected to be 1.94 billion tons, with exports expected to be 1.48 billion tons [9][10]. 3.3 Data Overview - The report provides multiple data charts, including the spot prices of East China third-grade rapeseed oil, East China fourth-grade soybean oil, and South China 24-degree palm oil, as well as the basis changes of palm oil, soybean oil, and rapeseed oil, and the price spreads of palm oil contracts. All data sources are from Wind and the Research and Development Department of Jianxin Futures [14][15][22].