Report Summary 1. Reported Industry - The report focuses on the egg industry [1] 2. Core Viewpoints - The current egg market may enter a phase of correction, with red eggs showing stable supply and demand The decline in futures prices is mainly due to the re - entry of short - sellers after the end of the price increase phase The decline is expected to be limited, with support above the previous low In the long - term, the decline may accelerate culling and keep the replenishment rate low, presenting long - position opportunities in the more distant months, but in the short - term, the market will likely oscillate at the bottom with near - month contracts being weaker [8] 3. Summary by Section 3.1. Market Review and Operation Suggestions - Market Review: The egg 2601 contract closed at 3322, down 65 or 1.92%; the 2602 contract closed at 3069, down 31 or 1.00%; the 2512 contract closed at 3063, down 103 or 3.25% The average price in the main production areas was 2.99 yuan/jin, down 0.01 yuan/jin from the previous day, and in the main sales areas, it was 3.31 yuan/jin, also down 0.01 yuan/jin [7] - Operation Suggestions: In the short - term, treat the market as bottom - oscillating with near - month contracts being weaker In the long - term, gradually pay attention to long - position opportunities in more distant months [8] 3.2. Industry News - Inventory: As of the end of October 2025, the national monthly inventory of laying hens was about 1.359 billion, down 0.66% month - on - month, ending the previous continuous growth trend, but up 5.59% year - on - year compared to October 2024 [9] - Replenishment: In October 2025, the monthly hatchling volume of laying hen chicks in sample enterprises was about 39.15 million, slightly down from 39.2 million in September 2025 and significantly down from 44.83 million in the same period in 2024 The cumulative replenishment from July to October 2025 was about 158.14 million, compared to about 176.1 million in the same period in 2024 [9] - Culling Volume: As of November 6, 2025, the national culling volume in the previous three weeks was 20.02 million, 20.53 million, and 19.81 million respectively, showing a fluctuating trend [9] - Culling Age: As of November 6, 2025, the average culling age was 493 days, 1 day earlier than the previous week and 6 days earlier than the previous month, indicating an accelerated culling process [14] 3.3. Data Overview - The report presents multiple data charts, including the monthly inventory of laying hens in China, egg chicken farming profit, egg prices in the main production areas, seasonal trends of egg 12 contracts, basis of egg 12 contracts, and the spread between egg 12 - 02 contracts [13][10][11]
建信期货鸡蛋日报-20251113
Jian Xin Qi Huo·2025-11-13 02:27