大越期货碳酸锂期货早报-20251113

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The supply of lithium carbonate is strong while the demand is weak due to capacity mismatch, and the downward trend is difficult to change [15]. - Lithium carbonate 2601 is expected to fluctuate in the range of 85,340 - 87,820 [10]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Daily Views - Supply: Last week, the lithium carbonate production was 21,534 tons, a 2.15% week - on - week increase, higher than the historical average [8]. In October 2025, the production was 92,260 tons, and the predicted production for next month is 92,080 tons, a 0.19% decrease [10]. - Demand: Last week, the inventory of sample enterprises of lithium iron phosphate was 105,719 tons, a 0.70% week - on - week increase, and that of ternary materials was 19,553 tons, a 3.51% week - on - week increase [8]. - Cost: The cost of purchased lithium spodumene concentrate is 82,955 yuan/ton, a 0.66% daily increase, with a loss of 815 yuan/ton; the cost of purchased lithium mica is 86,558 yuan/ton, a 0.54% daily increase, with a loss of 6,476 yuan/ton. The production cost of the recycling end is close to that of the ore end, and the production enthusiasm is average. The quarterly cash production cost of the salt lake end is 31,477 yuan/ton, with sufficient profit margins and strong production motivation [9]. - Fundamentals: Neutral. Basis: On November 12, the spot price of battery - grade lithium carbonate was 83,300 yuan/ton, and the basis of the 01 contract was - 3,280 yuan/ton, with the spot at a discount to the futures. Bearish. Inventory: The total inventory is 123,953 tons, a 2.67% week - on - week decrease, higher than the historical average. Neutral. Disk: MA20 is upward, and the futures price of the 01 contract closed above MA20. Bullish. Main positions: The main positions are net short, and short positions increased. Bearish [9][12]. - Bullish factors: Manufacturers' production suspension and reduction plans, a decrease in the volume of lithium carbonate imported from Chile, and a decline in the import volume of lithium spodumene [13]. - Bearish factors: The supply at the ore/salt lake end remains high, and the decline is limited; the willingness of the power battery end to take delivery is insufficient [14]. 3.2 Lithium Carbonate Market Overview - The prices of various lithium - related products showed different degrees of change. For example, the price of lithium spodumene (6%) increased by 0.92% to 984 US dollars/ton, and the price of battery - grade lithium carbonate increased by 1.22% to 83,300 yuan/ton [17]. 3.3 Supply - Side Data - Lithium ore: The monthly production of lithium spodumene, lithium mica, and other lithium ores showed different trends. The monthly import volume of lithium concentrate increased by 10.61% to 520,514 tons, and the import volume from Australia increased by 64.07% to 347,215 tons [19]. - Lithium carbonate: The weekly production of lithium carbonate was 123,953 tons, a 2.67% week - on - week decrease. The monthly production in October 2025 was 92,260 tons, a 5.73% increase compared to the previous month. The monthly import volume was 19,596.90 tons, a 10.30% decrease [19]. - Lithium hydroxide: The monthly production of lithium hydroxide was 29,220 tons, a 6.37% increase compared to the previous month. The monthly net export volume was 5,053.18 tons, a 13.60% increase [19]. 3.4 Demand - Side Data - Lithium battery: The monthly production of power batteries, the monthly total loading volume of power batteries, and the export volume of lithium batteries all showed different degrees of growth. For example, the monthly total loading volume of power batteries increased by 21.60% to 76,000 GWh [19]. - Ternary precursor: The monthly production of ternary precursors was 92,400 tons, a 4.92% increase compared to the previous month. The monthly export volume was 7,800 tons, a 101.73% increase [64]. - Ternary material: The monthly production of ternary materials was 12,450 tons, a 12.67% increase compared to the previous month. The monthly export volume was 2,000 tons, a 100% increase [67]. - Lithium iron phosphate: The monthly production of lithium iron phosphate was 394,350 tons, a 10.54% increase compared to the previous month. The monthly export volume was 3,091,994 kilograms, a 54.57% increase [19]. - New energy vehicle: The production, sales, and export volume of new energy vehicles all showed different degrees of growth. For example, the production increased by 9.59% to 1,772,000 vehicles, and the sales increased by 14.98% to 1.604 million vehicles [19].