大越期货豆粕早报-20251113

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - M2601 Soybean Meal: It is expected to fluctuate in the range of 3020 - 3080. The market is in a neutral state, with the spot price at 3000 (East China), a negative basis of -59, indicating a discount to the futures. The oil - mill soybean meal inventory is 115.3 million tons, showing a 9.33% increase from last week and a 17.16% increase year - on - year. The price is above the 20 - day moving average and moving upwards, but the main short positions are increasing, and funds are flowing in. The short - term is likely to maintain a fluctuating pattern due to various factors such as China's soybean procurement and South American planting weather [8][9]. - A2601 Soybeans: It is expected to fluctuate in the range of 4060 - 4160. The market is neutral, with a spot price of 4100 and a basis of -27, also at a discount to the futures. The oil - mill soybean inventory is 710.79 million tons, a 5.39% decrease from last week but a 29.06% increase year - on - year. The price is above the 20 - day moving average and moving upwards, while the main short positions are increasing, and funds are flowing out. It will maintain a fluctuating pattern influenced by factors like China's soybean procurement and South American planting weather [10][11]. 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents 3.1 Daily Tips - The soybean meal M2601 and soybean A2601 are expected to fluctuate within specific ranges, affected by factors such as China's soybean procurement, South American planting weather, domestic demand, and inventory levels [9][11]. 3.2 Recent News - The preliminary agreement on Sino - US tariff negotiations is short - term positive for US soybeans, but there are still uncertainties in China's procurement quantity and US soybean weather. The US soybean market is likely to be relatively strong above the 1000 - point mark in the short term [13]. - The arrival of imported soybeans in China decreased in November, and the oil - mill soybean inventory also declined from a high level. Domestic soybean meal is likely to return to a fluctuating pattern, affected by factors such as US soybean trends, demand off - season, and inventory levels [13]. - The decrease in domestic pig - farming profits has led to low expectations for pig replenishment, weakening the demand for soybean meal in November and suppressing its price. The market will wait for further guidance on US soybean production and the follow - up of Sino - US trade negotiations [13]. 3.3 Bullish and Bearish Factors 3.3.1 Soybean Meal - Bullish: Slow customs clearance of imported soybeans, low inventory pressure of domestic oil - mill soybean meal, and uncertain weather in US soybean - producing areas [14]. - Bearish: High arrival volume of imported soybeans in November, the harvest and listing of US soybeans, and the continuous expectation of a bumper US soybean harvest [14]. 3.3.2 Soybeans - Bullish: The cost of imported soybeans supports the bottom of the domestic soybean market, and the expected increase in domestic soybean demand supports its price [15]. - Bearish: A bumper harvest of Brazilian soybeans and China's increased procurement of Brazilian soybeans, as well as the expected increase in domestic new - season soybean production, suppress the price of soybeans [15]. 3.4 Fundamental Data - Soybean Meal: The spot price is 3000 (East China), with a negative basis of -59. The oil - mill soybean meal inventory is 115.3 million tons, a 9.33% increase from last week and a 17.16% increase year - on - year [9]. - Soybeans: The spot price is 4100, with a negative basis of -27. The oil - mill soybean inventory is 710.79 million tons, a 5.39% decrease from last week but a 29.06% increase year - on - year [11]. 3.5 Position Data - Soybean Meal: The main short positions are increasing, and funds are flowing in [9]. - Soybeans: The main short positions are increasing, and funds are flowing out [11].