白糖日报-20251113

Group 1: Report Information - Report Name: Sugar Daily Report [1] - Date: November 13, 2025 [2] - Researcher: Wang Haifeng, Lin Zhenlei, Yu Lanlan, Hong Chenliang, Liu Youran [3] - Research Team: Agricultural Products Research Team [4] Group 2: Market Review and Operation Suggestions Futures Market - SR601 closed at 5478 yuan/ton, down 4 yuan or 0.07%, with a position reduction of 3479 lots [7] - SR605 closed at 5411 yuan/ton, down 4 yuan or 0.07%, with a position increase of 953 lots [7] - US Sugar 03 closed at 14.28 cents/pound, up 0.08 cents or 0.56%, with a position increase of 991 lots [7] - US Sugar 05 closed at 13.89 cents/pound, up 0.10 cents or 0.73%, with a position increase of 2499 lots [7] Market Analysis - New York raw sugar futures fluctuated strongly, with the main March contract up 0.56% to 14.28 cents/pound [7] - London ICE white sugar futures' main March contract was up 0.37% to $409.60/ton [7] - Zhengzhou sugar's main contract fluctuated in place, with the 01 contract closing at 5478 yuan/ton, down 4 yuan or 0.07%, and a position reduction of 3479 lots [8] - Domestic sugar spot prices fell, with Kunming at 5570 yuan/ton and East China at 5820 yuan/ton [8] - The Guangxi Sugar Association agreed that the crushing start time should not be earlier than November 30, but some sugar mills have announced crushing starts in mid - November [8] - Zhengzhou sugar failed to break through, with obvious pressure at the 5500 yuan mark [8] - Speculative short positions decreased slightly [8] Group 3: Industry News - DATAGRO reduced the 2025/26 global sugar surplus forecast from 2.8 million tons to 1 million tons due to production cuts in Brazil and India [9] - DATAGRO revised Brazil's central - southern sugar production forecast from 41.1 million tons to 40.8 million tons and the cane - to - sugar ratio from 51.6% to 51.2% [9] - Brazil exported 685,701.91 tons of sugar in the first week of November, with an average daily export of 137,140.38 tons, a 23% decrease from the average daily export in November last year [9] - The China Sugar Association adjusted the 2024/25 sugar import volume down by 380,000 tons to 4.62 million tons [9] - The 2025/26 sugar production in China is predicted to be 11.7 million tons, an increase of 500,000 tons from last month's forecast [9] - The 2025/26 sugar consumption in China is predicted to be 15.7 million tons, a decrease of 200,000 tons from last month's forecast [9] - Southern cane sugar mills have started production, and all 29 northern beet sugar mills are in operation with stable production [9] Group 4: Data Overview - Figures include spot price trends, 2601 contract basis, SR1 - 5 spread, Brazilian raw sugar import profit, Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange warehouse receipts, Brazilian real exchange rate, and Zhengzhou sugar main contract's top 20 positions' trading and holding data [11][15][18][21] - Data sources are Wind, Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange, and Jianxin Futures Research and Development Department [12][14][16]