建信期货国债日报-20251113

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The bond market environment has improved. The negative factors in the bond market have basically been released, and November is a stage of accumulating positive factors. Although there are some uncertain disturbances, considering the central bank's bond - buying operations, the bottom of Treasury bond futures is supported. With the slowdown of economic momentum, the expectation of monetary easing is expected to heat up again. It is recommended to pay attention to this week's economic activity data and the central bank's outright reverse - repurchase operations and seize the opportunity to buy on dips [11][12]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1行情回顾与操作建议 (Market Review and Operation Suggestions) - Market Conditions: The third - quarter monetary policy implementation report released last night sent a signal of monetary easing, and the marginal improvement of the money market today boosted the bond market sentiment, leading to an overall rise in Treasury bond futures. The yields of major term interest - bearing bonds in the inter - bank market declined slightly. The yield of the 10 - year Treasury bond active bond 250016 was reported at 1.7990%, down 0.5bp [8][9]. - Money Market: The pressure on the money market has marginally eased. The central bank made a net injection of 1300 billion yuan today. The inter - bank money sentiment index declined slightly, indicating a marginal reduction in capital pressure. The weighted overnight rate of inter - bank deposits fell 9bp to 1.42%, and the 7 - day rate fell 2.22bp to 1.49%. The medium - and long - term funds were stable, and the 1 - year AAA certificate of deposit rate fluctuated narrowly around 1.62 - 1.64% [10]. - Conclusion: The domestic economic indicators have been weakening since June, especially the investment sector has accelerated its decline, and the export growth turned negative in October. Although the inflation data rebounded over the weekend, the demand - side improvement was not obvious. Currently, the combination of loose monetary policy and loose fiscal policy has been intensified. The restart of Treasury bond trading has brought direct buying demand to the bond market. The impact of loose fiscal policy on the bond market should be limited in the short term. Overall, the bond market environment has improved, and there is support at the bottom of Treasury bond futures [11][12]. 3.2行业要闻 (Industry News) - The US announced a one - year suspension of the implementation of the export control penetration rule. The Chinese Ministry of Commerce responded that this was an important measure for the US to implement the consensus reached in the China - US economic and trade consultations in Kuala Lumpur. - The central bank's third - quarter monetary policy implementation report pointed out that it will implement a moderately loose monetary policy, keep social financing conditions relatively loose, and continue to improve the monetary policy framework. - The Chinese Minister of Commerce had a video meeting with the German Federal Minister for Economic Affairs and Climate Action to exchange views on China - Germany and China - EU economic and trade issues. - Mexico postponed the increase of tariffs on Chinese goods, and the EU considered forcing member states to remove Huawei and ZTE equipment. The Chinese Ministry of Foreign Affairs urged the EU to provide a fair, transparent, and non - discriminatory business environment for Chinese enterprises. The US announced a one - year suspension of the 301 investigation on China's shipbuilding and other industries, and China announced corresponding counter - measures [13][14]. 3.3数据概览 (Data Overview) - Treasury Bond Futures Market: Includes information on the trading data of Treasury bond futures contracts (such as opening price, closing price, settlement price, etc.), the spread between main - contract tenors, the spread between main - contract varieties (e.g., 2 - year vs 30 - year, 10 - year, 5 - year; 5 - year vs 30 - year, 10 - year; 10 - year vs 30 - year), and the trend of main - contract prices [6][15][16]. - Money Market: Involves the term - structure changes and trends of SHIBOR, as well as the changes in the weighted average interest rate of inter - bank pledged repurchase and the interest rate of inter - bank deposit - pledged repurchase [28][32]. - Derivatives Market: Presents the fixed - rate curves of Shibor3M interest - rate swaps and FR007 interest - rate swaps [34].