大越期货PVC期货早报-20251113

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The overall supply pressure of PVC is strong, and the domestic demand recovery is sluggish. The current demand may remain weak. The market is influenced by factors such as macro - policies, export dynamics, and cost trends. PVC2601 is expected to fluctuate in the range of 4557 - 4605 [8]. - There are both positive and negative factors. Positive factors include supply resumption, cost support from calcium carbide and ethylene, and export benefits. Negative factors are the rebound in overall supply pressure, high - level and slow - consuming inventory, and weak domestic and external demand [12]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Daily Viewpoints - Likely Factors: Supply resumption, calcium carbide and ethylene cost support, and export benefits [12]. - Negative Factors: Overall supply pressure rebound, high - level and slow - consuming inventory, and weak domestic and external demand [12]. - Main Logic: Strong overall supply pressure and poor domestic demand recovery [13]. 3.2 Fundamental/Position Data - Supply Side: In October 2025, PVC production was 2.12812 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 4.79%. This week, the sample enterprise capacity utilization rate was 80.75%, a month - on - month increase of 0.03 percentage points. Calcium carbide - method enterprise production was 345,350 tons, a month - on - month increase of 4.89%, and ethylene - method enterprise production was 146,770 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.63%. Supply pressure increased this week, and it is expected to increase slightly next week [7]. - Demand Side: The overall downstream start - up rate was 49.6%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.93 percentage points, higher than the historical average. Different downstream sectors have different start - up rate changes, and the current demand may remain weak [7]. - Cost Side: The profit of the calcium carbide method was - 769.4 yuan/ton, with the loss increasing by 0.80% month - on - month, lower than the historical average. The profit of the ethylene method was - 465.05 yuan/ton, with the loss decreasing by 14.00% month - on - month, lower than the historical average. The double - ton price difference was 2176.35 yuan/ton, unchanged month - on - month, lower than the historical average, and production scheduling may be under pressure [7]. - Position: The net position of the main players is short, and the short position is increasing [8]. 3.3 Expectations - Basis: On November 12, the price of East China SG - 5 was 4580 yuan/ton, and the basis of the 01 contract was - 1 yuan/ton, with the spot at a discount to the futures, showing a neutral situation [10]. - Inventory: Factory inventory was 334,596 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.99%. Calcium carbide - method factory inventory was 250,396 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.78%, and ethylene - method factory inventory was 84,200 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 1.63%. Social inventory was 545,700 tons, a month - on - month increase of 0.20%. The in - stock days of production enterprises were 5.5 days, a month - on - month decrease of 2.65%, showing a neutral situation [10]. - Market: MA20 is downward, and the futures price of the 01 contract closed below MA20, showing a bearish situation [10].