国债期货早报-20251113

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The domestic bond market is generally warming up, with most yields of interest - rate bonds declining, and the main contracts of treasury bond futures rising. The 30 - year main contract rose 0.09% [3]. - The central bank conducted 195.5 billion yuan of reverse repurchase operations, with a net injection of 130 billion yuan, and the capital situation in the inter - bank market improved in a balanced manner. The overnight repurchase rate of deposit - taking institutions dropped 9bp to around 1.41% [3]. - The central bank has increased the volume of MLF roll - overs for the 8th consecutive month. The October PMI data was below expectations and still below the boom - bust line. In September, the CPI rose 0.1% month - on - month and decreased 0.3% year - on - year, while the year - on - year increase in core CPI has expanded for the 5th consecutive month. The new social financing in September was slightly lower than the seasonal level, and the M2 growth rate expanded due to the "migration of RMB deposits". The LPR remained unchanged as expected. The Federal Reserve cut interest rates by 25 basis points at the October meeting, and the market currently expects three interest rate cuts of 25 basis points each this year [6]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Market Review - The main contracts of 30 - year, 10 - year, 5 - year, and 2 - year treasury bond futures showed different price changes, trading volumes, and positions. For example, the T2512.CFE contract had a price of 108.520, a daily increase of 0.02%, a trading volume of 55,607, and a position of 221,517 with a decrease of 4,032 in the day [9]. 3.2 Fundamental Analysis - The domestic bond market is warming up, and the central bank's reverse repurchase operations have increased the net injection of funds, improving the capital situation in the inter - bank market [3][4]. 3.3 Capital Situation - On November 12, the central bank conducted 195.5 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations at an operating rate of 1.40%, with a net injection of 130 billion yuan [4]. 3.4 Basis Analysis - The TS main basis is - 0.0174, the TF main basis is - 0.0357, indicating that the spot bonds are at a discount to the futures, which is bearish. The T main basis is 0.0891, and the TL main basis is 0.0356, indicating that the spot bonds are at a premium to the futures, which is bullish [4]. 3.5 Inventory - The balances of deliverable bonds for the TS, TF, and T main contracts are 1.3594 trillion, 1.4935 trillion, and 2.3599 trillion respectively, which is neutral [5]. 3.6 Market Trends - The TS, TF, and T main contracts are all running above the 20 - day moving average, and the 20 - day moving average is upward, which is bullish [5]. 3.7 Main Positions - The TS and TF main contracts have net long positions with an increase in long positions, while the T main contract has a net long position with a decrease in long positions [6]. 3.8 Expectations - The central bank's continuous increase in MLF roll - overs, the weak PMI data, the CPI and core CPI trends, the new social financing situation, and the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts all have an impact on the bond market. The Fourth Plenary Session of the 20th Central Committee is favorable for the stock market, and there are rumors that the central bank will restart bond purchases [6].