建信期货钢材日评-20251113

Report Overview - Report Type: Steel Daily Report - Date: November 13, 2025 - Research Team: Black Metal Research Team, including researchers Zhai Hepan, Nie Jiayi, and Feng Zeren [1][2][3] 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Report's Core View The report predicts that the steel futures market will oscillate weakly in the future, but the room for continuous decline is limited. It is recommended to attempt buying hedging or investment in the large basis range after mid - November, while paying attention to the resistance of the spot market and whether subsequent production data can stabilize periodically [10]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1行情回顾与后市展望 (Market Review and Future Outlook) - Market Review: On November 12, the main contracts of rebar and hot - rolled coil futures 2601 rebounded with narrowed gains. Some spot market prices of rebar and hot - rolled coil showed more increases than decreases. The KDJ indicators of the 2601 contracts of rebar and hot - rolled coil showed divergent trends, with the J and K values turning up and the D value continuing to decline. The MACD green bars of these contracts narrowed [5][7]. - Future Outlook: Recently, coal supply - guarantee policies have been introduced, causing a significant decline in the prices of coke and coking coal futures. Fundamentally, steel mills have accelerated their production cuts recently, putting pressure on raw material prices and steel costs to decline. Due to a large drop in demand, the destocking of social inventories has slowed down, especially the social inventory of hot - rolled coils is significantly higher than the same period in recent years. The weekly demand for the five major steel products has dropped back to the level of mid - September, changing the previous expectation of strong demand in November. In terms of raw materials, the arrival volume of iron ore at domestic ports has decreased by 3.8% month - on - month in the past 4 weeks, but increased by 11.9% in the previous 4 weeks, with overall sufficient supply. The coke production of independent coking enterprises has dropped significantly to the lowest level since mid - March. Although coking plants and steel mills continue to destock coke, the port coke inventory has increased in the past 5 weeks. Since October 25, the customs clearance volume of Mongolian coal has rebounded significantly. The inventories of coking coal in 230 independent coking plants and ports have increased by 22.8% and 19.1% respectively compared with the previous lows in August - September [8][10]. 3.2 行业要闻 (Industry News) - Energy Policy: The National Energy Administration has issued a guidance on promoting the integrated and coordinated development of new energy, aiming to improve the complementary development level of multiple new energy sources [11]. - Steel - related Enterprises: Baosteel Co., Ltd. has set medium - and long - term carbon reduction targets. Fangda Special Steel is cooperating with CATL to develop key chassis components. Western Cement has signed three projects with Mozambique, investing nearly 2 billion yuan. Baodi Mining's acquisition, if successful, will enhance its market competitiveness [11][12]. - Other Industries: The production and sales of new energy vehicles in China from January to October have increased significantly, and the monthly sales of new energy vehicles in October exceeded 50% of the total new vehicle sales. The domestic sales and exports of excavators in China have increased. The Guangdong foreign trade has increased in the first 10 months. The global oil and gas demand is expected to continue to grow until 2050, and the LNG market scale will expand [11][13]. 3.3 数据概览 (Data Overview) The report provides multiple data charts, including the social inventory of rebar and hot - rolled coil in major cities, the spot prices of rebar and hot - rolled coil in major markets, the weekly output of five major steel products, the steel mill inventory of five major steel products, the blast furnace and electric furnace operating rates and capacity utilization rates, the national average daily pig iron output, the apparent consumption of five major steel products, and the basis between Shanghai spot and January contracts of rebar and hot - rolled coil. The data sources are Mysteel and the Research and Development Department of CCB Futures [17][18][26]