专题报告：中国天然气进出口格局

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - China has a large natural gas supply gap, making it a major importer with an import dependency of 40% - 44% in recent years. The import volume far exceeds the export volume, but both show an overall increasing trend. The import forms are pipeline gas and liquefied natural gas (LNG), with the LNG import volume growing faster and exceeding the pipeline gas volume since 2017 [1][6]. - The export volume of natural gas in China is much lower than the import volume, but it shows an overall increasing trend. Pipeline gas is the main form of export, and the export destinations are Hong Kong and Macau. The export of LNG started in 2018, driven by domestic supply - demand conditions and international market premiums [7]. - The import volume of China's pipeline gas has increased steadily, and the import price may be highly correlated with international oil prices. The import sources are mainly from Russia and Turkmenistan. The LNG import volume has grown rapidly, with diversified sources and long - term contracts accounting for a large proportion [2][17]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. China's Basic Situation of Natural Gas Import and Export - Supply gap: In 2015, the domestic natural gas supply gap was 663 billion cubic meters, and it expanded to 1768 billion cubic meters in 2024, driving up the import demand [6]. - Import volume: From 2015 to 2024, the import volume increased from 611 billion cubic meters to 1817 billion cubic meters, with a compound growth rate of 11.5%. In 2024, the main import sources were Russia, Australia, Turkmenistan, Qatar, and Malaysia, accounting for 81% of the total import volume [6]. - Import dependency: Since 2018, the import dependency has been in the range of 40% - 44% [6]. - Export volume: From 2015 to 2024, the export volume increased from 33 billion cubic meters to 60 billion cubic meters, with a compound growth rate of 6.2%. The export is mainly pipeline gas, and the export destinations are Hong Kong and Macau. The export of LNG started in 2018, and it is expected to grow in the long - term [7]. 2. The Full Operation of Three Existing On - shore Import Channels and the Steady Growth of China's Pipeline Gas Import Volume - Import volume growth: From 2015 to 2024, the import volume increased from 2468 thousand tons to 5369 thousand tons, with a compound growth rate of 8.1% [2][11]. - Import sources: The import countries are Turkmenistan, Uzbekistan, Kazakhstan, Myanmar, and Russia. In 2024, the import amounts from Turkmenistan and Russia were 9.57 billion and 8.04 billion US dollars respectively, accounting for 83.5% of the total import amount [11]. - Import pipelines: There are three import pipelines: the Central Asian Gas Pipeline, the China - Myanmar Gas Pipeline, and the Eastern Route of the China - Russia Gas Pipeline. The Central Asian Gas Pipeline has four lines (ABC are in operation, D is under construction), the China - Myanmar Gas Pipeline enhances the energy security of south - western China, and the Eastern Route of the China - Russia Gas Pipeline improves the gas supply in the northeast and east of China and optimizes the import structure [12][13][16]. - Price: The import price of pipeline gas may be highly correlated with international oil prices, with a lag of about 6 months and a correlation coefficient of 0.93 [17]. 3. Diverse Sources and Long - term Contracts Dominating: China Becomes the World's Largest LNG Importer - Import volume growth: From 2006 to 2024, the import volume increased from 68,800 tons to 7,664,900 tons, with a compound growth rate of 29.9%. It can be divided into two stages: high - speed growth from 2006 - 2021 and a significant slowdown from 2022 - 2025 [21]. - Import sources: The sources are diverse, with more than 15 countries. The main sources are Australia, Qatar, Russia, Malaysia, the United States, and Indonesia, accounting for 89% of the total import volume in 2024. The import volume from different countries shows different trends [22]. - Import structure: Long - term contracts dominate, accounting for 87.4% of the total LNG import volume in 2024. More domestic procurement units are participating in international LNG procurement, and state - owned enterprises have signed a large number of long - term contracts after the Russia - Ukraine conflict [23].