瑞达期货纯碱玻璃产业日报-20251113

Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Core Viewpoints - For soda ash, the current production fluctuation is small with no large - scale maintenance plan, and the overall output remains relatively high. New capacities are expected to be put into production in December, intensifying the future supply - surplus situation. Today's price increase is due to supply reduction, but the demand side shows no obvious change, and the subsequent increase is expected to decline. It is recommended to short - sell the soda ash main contract at high prices in the short term [2]. - For glass, the short - term supply has decreased due to the cold - repair of four coal - fired production lines in the Shahe area since November, supporting the price. However, there are plans for production line resumption and new - line investment in the medium - and long - term, increasing supply pressure. The demand from the real - estate market is sluggish, and although policies have been introduced, the short - term effect is not obvious. The glass market shows signs of stopping the decline today, and it is recommended to wait and see in the short term [2]. Summary by Directory Futures Market - Soda ash main contract closing price is 1,239 yuan/ton, up 25 yuan; glass main contract closing price is 1,056 yuan/ton, up 7 yuan. Soda ash main contract position is 1,326,711 lots, up 10,470 lots; glass main contract position is 1,913,051 lots, down 96,674 lots. Soda ash top 20 net position is - 204,519 lots, up 48,717 lots; glass top 20 net position is - 344,053 lots, down 714 lots. Soda ash exchange warehouse receipts are 6,351 tons, down 648 tons; glass exchange warehouse receipts are 495 tons, down 3 tons. Soda ash basis is - 44 yuan/ton, up 1 yuan; glass basis is - 24 yuan/ton, down 7 yuan. The price difference between January and May glass contracts is - 117 yuan, up 3 yuan; the price difference between January and May soda ash contracts is - 66 yuan, up 7 yuan [2]. Spot Market - North China heavy - soda ash is 1,170 yuan/ton, unchanged; Central China heavy - soda ash is 1,300 yuan/ton, unchanged. East China light - soda ash is 1,260 yuan/ton, unchanged; Central China light - soda ash is 1,145 yuan/ton, unchanged. Shahe glass sheets are 1,032 yuan/ton, down 4 yuan; Central China glass sheets are 1,140 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. Industry Situation - Soda ash plant operating rate is 85.67%, down 1.22 percentage points; float glass enterprise operating rate is 75.92%, down 0.43 percentage points. Glass in - production capacity is 15.91 million tons/year, down 0.21 million tons; the number of glass in - production lines is 222, down 4. Soda ash enterprise inventory is 1.7062 million tons, down 0.008 million tons; glass enterprise inventory is 63.136 million weight cases, down 2.654 million weight cases [2]. Downstream Situation - The cumulative value of real - estate new construction area is 45,3990,000 square meters, up 5,5979,000 square meters; the cumulative value of real - estate completion area is 31,1290,000 square meters, up 3,4354,000 square meters [2]. Industry News - Henan Zhongyuan Chemical's soda ash plant operates stably with stable prices, offering light - soda ash at 1,090 yuan/ton on acceptance, and not offering heavy - soda ash for the time being. Hubei Shuanghuan's soda ash plant starts up and is in the production - increasing stage, offering light - soda ash at 1,160 yuan/ton. Henan Haohua Junhua's soda ash plant operates stably with stable prices. Inner Mongolia Boyuan Yingen Chemical's 5 - million - ton/year soda ash plant reduces production, with the ex - factory price of qualified light - soda ash at 900 yuan. Zhongyan Anhui Hongsifang's soda ash plant restores its load. Tangshan Sanyou's 2.3 - million - ton/year soda ash plant reduces production, operating at about 70% capacity. Shandong Haitian Biological Chemical's 1.5 - million - ton/year soda ash plant resumes production. Shandong Haihua's 3 - million - ton/year soda ash plant reduces its load. Anhui Huainan Alkali Plant's plant boiler is ignited [2]. Suggestions - For soda ash, short - sell the main contract at high prices in the short term [2]. - For glass, wait and see in the short term [2].