Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core View of the Report - The BR2601 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 10,400 - 10,700 in the short - term. Next week, due to the slight delay of Maoming Petrochemical's maintenance until the end of the month and the gradual output after the restart of Qilu Petrochemical, Sichuan Petrochemical, and Yangzi Petrochemical's devices, the production enterprise inventory is expected to increase, while the trading enterprise inventory is expected to decline slightly. The capacity utilization rate of the tire industry is expected to decline further as the number of maintenance days of the maintenance enterprises increases next week [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the main contract of synthetic rubber is 10,480 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week increase of 50 yuan/ton; the position of the main contract is 76,365, with a week - on - week decrease of 32. The 12 - 1 spread of synthetic rubber is 0 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week decrease of 35 yuan/ton. The total number of warehouse receipts of butadiene rubber in warehouses is 2,980 tons, with a week - on - week decrease of 10 tons [2]. Spot Market - The mainstream price of BR9000 cis - butadiene rubber from Qilu Petrochemical in Shandong is 10,400 yuan/ton; that from Daqing Petrochemical in Shandong is 10,400 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week increase of 50 yuan/ton; in Shanghai is 10,600 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week increase of 200 yuan/ton; and that from Maoming Petrochemical in Guangdong is 10,750 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week increase of 100 yuan/ton. The basis of synthetic rubber is - 30 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week decrease of 100 yuan/ton [2]. Upstream Situation - Brent crude oil is at $62.71 per barrel, with a week - on - week decrease of $2.45; WTI crude oil is at $58.49 per barrel, with a week - on - week decrease of $2.55. The price of naphtha CFR Japan is $584.25 per ton, with a week - on - week increase of $7.5. The price of Northeast Asian ethylene is $740 per ton, with no change; the intermediate price of butadiene CFR China is $790 per ton, with no change. The mainstream price of butadiene in the Shandong market is 7,150 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week increase of 175 yuan/ton. The weekly production capacity of butadiene is 155,300 tons, with a week - on - week decrease of 100 tons; the capacity utilization rate is 70.32%, with a week - on - week increase of 3.26 percentage points. The port inventory of butadiene is 29,800 tons, with a week - on - week decrease of 2,200 tons. The operating rate of Shandong local refineries' atmospheric and vacuum distillation units is 52.45%, with a week - on - week increase of 0.15 percentage points [2]. Downstream Situation - The monthly output of cis - butadiene rubber is 130,400 tons, with a month - on - month decrease of 5,300 tons; the weekly capacity utilization rate is 65.85%, with a week - on - week decrease of 1.1 percentage points. The weekly production profit of cis - butadiene rubber is 539 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week increase of 118 yuan/ton. The social inventory of cis - butadiene rubber is 29,300 tons, with a week - on - week decrease of 1,600 tons; the manufacturer's inventory is 25,770 tons, with a week - on - week decrease of 1,430 tons; the trader's inventory is 3,520 tons, with a week - on - week decrease of 160 tons. The operating rate of domestic semi - steel tires is 73.67%, with a week - on - week increase of 0.26 percentage points; the operating rate of full - steel tires is 65.46%, with a week - on - week increase of 0.12 percentage points. The monthly output of full - steel tires is 1.314 million pieces; the monthly output of semi - steel tires is 6.025 million pieces, with a month - on - month increase of 219,000 pieces. The inventory days of full - steel tires in Shandong are 39.2 days, with a week - on - week increase of 0.19 days; the inventory days of semi - steel tires in Shandong are 45.05 days, with a week - on - week increase of 0.23 days [2]. Industry News - As of November 13, the capacity utilization rate of Chinese semi - steel tire sample enterprises is 72.99%, with a week - on - week increase of 0.10 percentage points and a year - on - year decrease of 6.74 percentage points; the capacity utilization rate of full - steel tire sample enterprises is 64.29%, with a week - on - week decrease of 1.08 percentage points and a year - on - year increase of 6.04 percentage points. In October 2025, the domestic cis - butadiene rubber output was 137,600 tons, a month - on - month increase of 7,200 tons or 5.52%, and a year - on - year increase of 24.07%. The capacity utilization rate of cis - butadiene rubber in October was 71.39%, an increase of 1.46 percentage points from the previous period and 10.93 percentage points from the same period last year. As of November 13, the domestic cis - butadiene rubber inventory was 30,800 tons, a week - on - week increase of 1,500 tons or 5.22% [2].
瑞达期货合成橡胶产业日报-20251113
Rui Da Qi Huo·2025-11-13 09:31