LPG早报-20251114

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Report's Core View - The domestic civil LPG market may show a pattern of stronger in the south and weaker in the north, with overall peak - season expectations. PDH profit contraction may lead to a decline in propane demand, and the current domestic market valuation is high and may decline. The international propane market is in a loose pattern, and attention should be paid to weather and US cold wave conditions [1] Group 3: Summary According to Related Content Price and Basis Information - On Thursday, for civil LPG, the price in East China was 4368 (-10), in Shandong was 4400 (+0), and in South China was 4490 (+0). The price of ether - post carbon four was 4630 (+0). The lowest delivery location was East China, with a basis of - 6, and the daily change was (+74). The 12 - 01 monthly spread was 98 (-3). FEI was 501 (+2) and CP was 480 (+6) dollars/ton [1] - The PG main contract fluctuated. The basis was 102 (+116), the 12 - 01 monthly spread was 72 (-8). The number of warehouse receipts was 4444 (+250). The cheapest delivery product was East China civil LPG at 4374; in Shandong it was 4380 (+80), in East China it was 4374 (+95), and in South China it was 4450 (+50). The price of Shandong ether - post carbon four was 4500 (+80) [1] Market Spread and Margin Information - The external market price declined; the internal - external spread strengthened. PG - CP reached 137 (+4), PG - FEI reached 113 (+15.6); FEI - MB was 153 (-1.8). The arrival discount of propane in East China was 85 US dollars (+6), and the freight was basically flat. The FEI - MOPI spread widened, and the switching window was still open, with the latest at - 73 (-6) [1] - The naphtha crack spread changed little and was at a relatively high level this year. The profit of Shandong PDH to produce propylene declined significantly (some plants shut down). The profit of alkylation plants rebounded. The MTBE production gross profit changed little, and the export profit fluctuated [1] Supply, Demand and Inventory Information - Domestic production decreased, and factory inventories were basically flat; the arrival potential was limited, terminal sales improved, and port inventories decreased. The PDH operating rate was 75.49% (+1.6), as Lihuayi Weiyuan started to full - load operation, while Binhua, Xintai, and Haiwei shut down successively [1]