集运早报-20251114

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - On Thursday, the overall futures market showed a volatile trend, with contracts EC2512, EC2606, and EC2608 relatively strong, possibly due to a rebound from previous declines caused by geopolitical factors [1]. - The valuation of EC2512 is neutral and will gradually follow the delivery logic. The freight rates in late November will determine the implementation of price - holding in December, and it is expected to follow spot price changes and shipping companies' price - increase announcements [1]. - The valuation of EC2602 is difficult to determine, and it is expected to follow EC2512 in the short term. If the peak - season cargo - booking situation meets expectations, it may have greater upside potential as the freight rate usually peaks 4 - 5 weeks before the Spring Festival (mid - January next year) [1]. - EC2604 is a off - season contract. It will maintain a narrow - range volatile trend in the short - term under the peak - season logic. Given the expected greater supply pressure and the off - season in April next year, a short - selling strategy on rallies is recommended [1]. 3. Summary by Related Information Futures Contract Prices and Changes - Single - Contract Prices: For example, EC2512 had a closing price of 1782.3 with a change of 1.88%, and a position change of - 277.5; EC2602 had a closing price of 1632.0 with a change of - 127.2 [1]. - Spread between Contracts: The spread between FC2512 - 2504 was 612.0, and the spread between FC2512 - 2602 was 150.3 [1]. Index Data - SCFIS (European Line): As of November 10, 2025, it was 1504.80, with a week - on - week increase of 24.50% and a two - week decrease of 7.92% [1]. - SCEI (European Line): As of November 7, 2025, it was 1323, with a week - on - week decrease of 1.56% and a two - week increase of 7.87% [1]. - CCFI: As of November 1, 2025, it was 1366.85, with a week - on - week increase of 3.25% and a two - week increase of 2.37% [1]. - NCFI: As of November 1, 2025, it was 911.73, with a week - on - week decrease of 5.58% and a two - week increase of 17.43% [1]. Spot Freight Rate and Shipping Company Quotes - 46 - week Spot Freight Rate: The average landed price was 2000 US dollars (equivalent to 1400 points on the futures market) [1]. - Shipping Company Quotes for 48 - week: MSK's opening quotes for the 48 - week were 1900 - 2000 US dollars, equivalent to 1340 - 1400 points on the futures market; ONE reduced its price to 1900 US dollars for the 48 - week [1][3]. News and Geopolitical Factors - On November 12, the Houthi armed forces announced the end of attacks on merchant ships in the Red Sea but threatened to resume if Israel continued its aggression in Gaza [1]. - On November 11, Hamas stated that it had completed the first phase of the cease - fire agreement, which was only a preliminary agreement, and the second - phase negotiation had not started yet [1].