永安期货有色早报-20251114

Group 1: Copper - This week, copper prices had a slight correction, and the 85,000 yuan level received concentrated price - fixing support from downstream buyers. The market is concerned about when the liquidity of the TGA account will be released. The Shanghai Copper Conference this week was generally bullish on next year's demand. The current slow inventory - building pattern may continue until the first quarter of next year, and the fundamentals remain stable but weak. The 85,000 yuan level may be the psychological price for downstream price - fixing [1]. Group 2: Aluminum - The long - term reduction of Iceland's electrolytic aluminum production is confirmed, and high overseas electricity prices increase the expectation of production cuts in other capacities. Aluminum prices have risen significantly, with the basis of aluminum ingots declining. The domestic market shows stronger performance than the overseas market, but the apparent demand for domestic aluminum ingots and aluminum products has weakened, and the inventory of aluminum ingots has increased month - on - month. Future supply and demand of aluminum may remain in a tight balance, and prices are likely to rise in the long - term, but the actual performance may be lower than expected [2]. Group 3: Zinc - This week, the center of zinc prices has risen. On the supply side, domestic and imported TC are accelerating their decline, and domestic mines will be marginally tighter from the fourth quarter to the first quarter of next year. In November, the zinc ingots from Huoshaoyun were officially put into production, with an expected monthly output of 8,000 - 10,000 tons. On the demand side, domestic demand is seasonally weak, and overseas European demand is average. Domestic social inventory is fluctuating, and overseas LME inventory is oscillating at a low level. It is recommended to wait and see for unilateral trading, pay attention to reverse arbitrage opportunities, and consider positive arbitrage opportunities for the 12 - 02 spread [5]. Group 4: Stainless Steel - On the supply side, steel mills' production in October increased slightly month - on - month. On the demand side, it is mainly driven by rigid demand. Costs of ferronickel and ferrochrome remain stable. Inventory is at a high level. The fundamentals are generally weak, and it is advisable to pay attention to short - selling opportunities [9]. Group 5: Lead - This week, lead prices fluctuated at a high level, and the near - term spread strengthened. On the supply side, the scrap volume is weak year - on - year, and the recovery of recycled lead profits encourages复产. On the demand side, the battery production rate increased by 0.4% this week, but there is an expectation of weakening demand. It is expected that lead prices will maintain a narrow - range oscillation next week, and it is recommended to wait and see the situation of recycled lead production resumption and warehouse receipt increase [12]. Group 6: Tin - This week, tin prices oscillated. On the supply side, the processing fees for tin ore are at a low level, and the supply has marginally recovered after the overhaul of Yunnan Tin ended. Overseas production in Wa State and Indonesia has some uncertainties. On the demand side, it is mainly supported by rigid demand. In the short - term, it is recommended to wait and see, and in the long - term, it is advisable to hold when the price is close to the cost line [15]. Group 7: Industrial Silicon - This week, the operation of leading enterprises in Xinjiang is stable, and most industrial silicon plants in the southwest region have cut production. The overall production in the northwest region is relatively stable. In the fourth quarter, the supply and demand of industrial silicon are expected to be in a slightly loose balance, with prices expected to oscillate in the short - term and at the bottom of the cycle in the long - term [16]. Group 8: Lithium Carbonate - Affected by the expectation of mine复产 in Jiangxi, lithium carbonate prices have fluctuated widely. The upstream inventory has been significantly reduced, and downstream inventory is relatively sufficient. In the short - term, supply and demand are both strong, and the market is in a de - stocking trend. The upward potential of prices depends on further inventory reduction, the emergence of speculative demand, or stronger holding willingness [16]. Group 9: Nickel - On the supply side, the price of nickel sulfate is relatively strong, and the output of pure nickel has slightly decreased month - on - month. On the demand side, it is generally weak. Inventory is continuously increasing both at home and abroad. The short - term fundamentals are weak. With continuous disturbances in the Indonesian nickel ore market and the policy's motivation to support prices, it is advisable to pay attention to short - selling opportunities [20].