大越期货玻璃早报-20251114

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core View of the Report - Glass fundamentals are weak, with production profit recovery being乏力, supply at a historically low level in the same period, downstream deep - processing orders overall weak, and real - estate terminal demand sluggish, inventory at a high level. The short - term is expected to be mainly in a weak and volatile operation [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Glass Futures Market - The closing price of the main contract of glass futures increased from 1049 yuan/ton to 1056 yuan/ton, a rise of 0.67%. The spot price of the Shahe Safety large board decreased from 1036 yuan/ton to 1032 yuan/ton, a drop of 0.39%. The main basis changed from - 13 yuan/ton to - 24 yuan/ton, a change of 84.62% [5] Glass Spot Market - The market price of 5mm white glass large boards in the spot benchmark area of Hebei Shahe is 1032 yuan/ton, down 4 yuan/ton from the previous day [10] Fundamental Analysis - Cost Side - Glass production line: The number of operating national float glass production lines is 222, with an operating rate of 75.92%, and the number of operating production lines is at a historically low level in the same period. The daily melting volume of national float glass is 159,100 tons, and the production capacity is at a historically low level in the same period [21][23] Fundamental Analysis - Demand - In August 2025, the apparent consumption volume of float glass was 4.8602 million tons [27] Fundamental Analysis - Inventory - The inventory of national float glass enterprises is 63.247 million weight boxes, an increase of 0.18% from the previous week, and the inventory is running above the 5 - year average [42] Fundamental Analysis - Supply - Demand Balance Sheet - The supply - demand balance sheet of float glass from 2017 to 2024E shows changes in production, consumption, production growth rate, consumption growth rate, and net import ratio. For example, in 2017, the production was 53.54 million tons, the consumption was 52.29 million tons; in 2024E, the production is expected to be 55.1 million tons, the consumption is expected to be 53.1 million tons [43] Influencing Factors Summary - Positive Factors: Under the influence of the "anti - involution" policy and environmental protection policy, the float glass industry has cleared its production capacity, with "coal - to - gas" in the Shahe area and cold repairs in the industry, resulting in production losses [3] - Negative Factors: The main logic is that glass supply has stabilized and rebounded at a low level, the downstream's phased replenishment has ended, and the glass factory's inventory has increased. It is expected that glass will mainly operate in a weak and volatile manner at a low level. Other factors include weak real - estate terminal demand, low order volume of glass deep - processing enterprises, poor capital collection in the deep - processing industry, and the fading of the "anti - involution" market sentiment [3][4]