Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No investment rating provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints - OPEC and EIA monthly reports have raised oil production forecasts, leading to concerns about supply glut and dragging down oil prices. The marine fuel market has weak supply and demand, with pressure on shipments [3]. - The Asian high - sulfur fuel oil market structure will remain at current levels. Although there is a stable inflow of shipments from the Middle East, healthy downstream marine fuel demand still supports the high - sulfur fuel oil market, and the price spread between high - and low - sulfur fuel oils may narrow in the future. The price of FU2601 is expected to move in the range of 2580 - 2620, and LU2601 in the range of 3180 - 3220 [3]. - The supply side is affected by geopolitical risks, while demand is neutral. The bullish factors include Russia's fuel export restrictions and sanctions on Russian oil - related enterprises, while the bearish factors are the unproven optimistic demand and the pressure on upstream crude oil [4]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Daily Tips - The current situation of fuel oil: The fundamentals are bearish; the basis is neutral; the inventory is neutral; the price on the disk is neutral; the high - sulfur main position is short - biased, and the low - sulfur main position is long - biased [3]. - Futures prices: The FU main contract futures price dropped from 2695 to 2616, a decrease of 2.93%; the LU main contract futures price dropped from 3310 to 3213, also a decrease of 2.93% [5]. - Spot prices: The prices of various types of fuel oil in different regions have generally declined, with the largest decline of 4.09% in Middle East high - sulfur fuel oil, and the price of Singapore diesel increased by 2.04% [6]. 3.2 Multi - and Short - Term Concerns - Bullish factors: Russia's fuel export restrictions and sanctions on Russian oil - related enterprises [4]. - Bearish factors: The optimistic demand on the demand side remains to be verified, and upstream crude oil is under pressure [4]. 3.3 Fundamental Data - Fundamentals: OPEC and EIA monthly reports have raised oil production forecasts, leading to concerns about supply glut and dragging down oil prices. The marine fuel market has weak supply and demand, with pressure on shipments [3]. - Basis: The basis of Singapore high - sulfur fuel oil is - 16 yuan/ton, and that of low - sulfur fuel oil is 36 yuan/ton, with the spot being nearly flat to the futures [3]. - Inventory: Singapore's fuel oil inventory in the week of November 12 was 2087.9 million barrels, a decrease of 19 million barrels [3]. - Disk: The price is below the 20 - day line, and the 20 - day line is flat [3]. - Main positions: The high - sulfur main position is short - biased with an increase in short positions, and the low - sulfur main position is long - biased with a shift from short to long [3]. 3.4 Spread Data - The report shows the historical data of the spread between high - and low - sulfur futures, but specific analysis is not provided [11]. 3.5 Inventory Data - Singapore's fuel oil inventory has fluctuated in recent months. As of November 12, it was 2087.9 million barrels, a decrease of 19 million barrels compared to the previous period [8].
2025-11-14燃料油早报-20251114
Da Yue Qi Huo·2025-11-14 02:11