大越期货尿素早报-20251114

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The current daily production and operating rate of urea have rebounded again, and the comprehensive inventory has slightly declined. The agricultural demand has rebounded due to weather influence, while the industrial demand is moderately weak. The export volume has increased due to the large price difference between domestic and international markets, and the export expectation has been gradually realized, boosting the sentiment of the futures market. However, the domestic urea market still has an overall oversupply situation. The spot price of the delivery product is 1600 (unchanged). The overall fundamentals are neutral. It is expected that the urea futures will fluctuate today [4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Urea Overview - Fundamentals: Daily production and operating rate have rebounded, and comprehensive inventory has slightly declined. Agricultural demand has rebounded, industrial demand is moderately weak. Export volume has increased, and the export expectation has been realized, boosting the market sentiment. The domestic market is oversupplied. The spot price of the delivery product is 1600 (unchanged), and the overall fundamentals are neutral [4]. - Basis: The basis of the UR2601 contract is -58, and the premium/discount ratio is -3.6%, indicating a bearish signal [4]. - Inventory: The UR comprehensive inventory is 1.657 million tons (-0.7), indicating a bearish signal [4]. - Futures Market: The 20 - day moving average of the UR main contract is upward, and the closing price is above the 20 - day moving average, indicating a bullish signal [4]. - Main Position: The net position of the UR main contract is short, and the short position has increased, indicating a bearish signal [4]. - Expectation: The industrial demand is neutral, the agricultural demand has rebounded, the international urea price is strong, and the export expectation has been realized, boosting the market sentiment. However, the domestic oversupply situation is still obvious. It is expected that the UR futures will fluctuate today [4]. - Likely Factors: International prices are strong, and agricultural demand has rebounded [5]. - Negative Factors: The domestic market is oversupplied [5]. - Main Logic: International prices and marginal changes in domestic demand [5]. Spot and Futures Market and Inventory | Category | Details | | --- | --- | | Spot Market | Spot delivery product price is 1600 (unchanged), Shandong spot price is 1600 (unchanged), Henan spot price is 1610 (unchanged), FOB China price is 2732 [6]. | | Futures Market | UR01 contract price is 1658 (+3), UR05 contract price is 1731 (+3), UR09 contract price is 1754 (+6) [6]. | | Inventory | Warehouse receipts are 6958 (unchanged), UR comprehensive inventory is 1.657 million tons (-0.7), UR manufacturer inventory is 1.578 million tons (unchanged), UR port inventory is 79,000 tons (unchanged) [6]. | Urea Supply - Demand Balance Sheet | Year | Capacity | Capacity Growth Rate | Output | Net Imports | Import Dependence | Apparent Consumption | Ending Inventory | Actual Consumption | Consumption Growth Rate | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2018 | - | 2245.5 | - | 1956.81 | 448.38 (18.6%) | 2405.19 | 23.66 | 2405.19 | - | | 2019 | - | 2445.5 | 8.9% | 2240 | 487.94 (17.9%) | 2727.94 | 37.86 | 2713.74 | 12.8% | | 2020 | - | 2825.5 | 15.5% | 2580.98 | 619.12 (19.3%) | 3200.1 | 37.83 | 3200.13 | 17.9% | | 2021 | - | 3148.5 | 11.4% | 2927.99 | 352.41 (10.7%) | 3280.4 | 35.72 | 3282.51 | 2.6% | | 2022 | - | 3413.5 | 8.4% | 2965.46 | 335.37 (10.2%) | 3300.83 | 44.62 | 3291.93 | 0.3% | | 2023 | - | 3893.5 | 14.1% | 3193.59 | 293.13 (8.4%) | 3486.72 | 44.65 | 3486.69 | 5.9% | | 2025E | - | 4906 | 11.0% | - | - | - | - | - | - | [9]