贵金属早报-20251114

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Views - The hawkish remarks from Fed officials led to a triple - kill in the US stock, bond, and foreign exchange markets, causing the prices of gold and silver to decline. The gold price is expected to fluctuate, and the silver price still mainly follows the gold price. The premiums of Shanghai gold and silver have changed, and the market is waiting for data verification [4][6]. - After Trump took office, the world entered a period of extreme turmoil and change. The inflation expectation shifted to an economic recession expectation, which supported the precious metal prices. However, factors such as the US government shutdown, Fed rate cuts, and Sino - US tariff concerns have improved, weakening the support for precious metal prices [10][14]. Summary by Directory 1. Previous Day's Review - Gold: The hawkish remarks from Fed officials led to a triple - kill in the US stock, bond, and foreign exchange markets, causing the gold price to decline. The US three major stock indexes and European three major stock indexes all closed down. The yield of the 10 - year US Treasury bond rose 5.18 basis points to 4.121%, the US dollar index fell 0.30% to 99.18, and the offshore RMB appreciated against the US dollar to 7.0974. The COMEX gold futures fell 0.93% to $4174.5 per ounce. The basis was - 3.05, with the spot at a discount to the futures. The gold futures warehouse receipts increased by 810 kilograms to 90426 kilograms. The 20 - day moving average was downward, and the K - line was above the 20 - day moving average. The main net long position decreased [4][5]. - Silver: Similar to gold, the silver price reached a record high and then declined significantly. The COMEX silver futures fell 2.30% to $52.23 per ounce. The basis was - 20, with the spot at a discount to the futures. The Shanghai silver futures warehouse receipts increased by 954 kilograms. The 20 - day moving average was upward, and the K - line was above the 20 - day moving average. The main net long position increased [6]. 2. Daily Tips - Today's Focus: Attention should be paid to China's series of economic data, intensive speeches by ECB and Fed officials, and the revised value of the euro - zone's Q3 GDP. The hawkish remarks from Fed officials led to a decline in the precious metal prices, and the market is waiting for data verification [4][6]. 3. Fundamental Data - Gold: The fundamental situation is neutral. The factors affecting the gold price include the shift from inflation expectation to economic recession expectation after Trump took office, but the support from factors such as the US government shutdown, Fed rate cuts, and Sino - US tariff concerns has weakened [4][10]. - Silver: The fundamental situation is neutral. The silver price mainly follows the gold price, and factors such as tariff concerns have a greater impact on the silver price [6][14]. 4. Position Data - Gold: On November 13, 2025, the long - position volume of the top 20 in Shanghai gold increased by 0.66% to 169,485, the short - position volume decreased by 3.86% to 67,373, and the net long position increased by 3.89% to 102,112 [32]. - Silver: On November 13, 2025, the long - position volume of the top 20 in Shanghai silver increased by 2.72% to 398,314, the short - position volume increased by 11.04% to 294,341, and the net long position decreased by 15.26% to 103,973 [33]. 5. Today's Concerns - 08:05: Speech by ECB Governing Council member Vujčić - 09:30: Release of the monthly report on housing sales prices in 70 large and medium - sized cities by the National Bureau of Statistics - 10:00: Release of China's industrial added value above designated size, total retail sales of consumer goods, urban fixed - asset investment, and national real - estate development investment from January to October, and the urban surveyed unemployment rate in October. A press conference on the national economic operation will be held by the State Council Information Office - 15:05: Speeches by ECB Governing Council members Escriva and Vujčić at the Singapore Fintech Festival - 18:00: Release of the revised value of the euro - zone's Q3 GDP - 18:30: Speech by ECB Executive Board member Elderson in Frankfurt - 21:30 (possibly): Release of US retail sales in October - 22:20: Speech by Atlanta Fed President Bostic (FOMC voter in 2027) - 23:00: Speech by ECB Chief Economist Philip Lane - 23:05: Speech by Kansas City Fed President Jeff Schmid - Next day 03:30: Participation in a fireside chat by Dallas Fed President Lorie Logan - Next day 04:20: Participation in a dialogue by Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic [16]