大越期货油脂早报-20251114

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The prices of oils and fats are expected to fluctuate and consolidate. The domestic fundamentals are loose, and the domestic supply of oils and fats is stable. Sino - US relations are tense, which puts pressure on the price of new US soybeans due to export setbacks. The inventory of Malaysian palm oil is neutral, and demand has improved. Indonesia's B40 policy promotes domestic consumption, and the B50 plan is expected to be implemented in 2026. The domestic fundamentals of oils and fats are neutral, and the import inventory is stable [2][3][4] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Daily Viewpoints Soybean Oil - Fundamental: The MPOB report shows that in August, Malaysian palm oil production decreased by 9.8% month - on - month to 1.62 million tons, exports decreased by 14.74% month - on - month to 1.49 million tons, and the end - of - month inventory decreased by 2.6% month - on - month to 1.83 million tons. The report is neutral, with less - than - expected production cuts. Currently, the export data of Malaysian palm oil this month shows a 4% month - on - month increase, and the supply pressure of palm oil will decrease in the subsequent production - reduction season [2] - Basis: The spot price of soybean oil is 8502, with a basis of 186, indicating that the spot price is at a premium to the futures price [2] - Inventory: On September 22, the commercial inventory of soybean oil was 1.18 million tons, an increase of 20,000 tons from the previous 1.16 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 20,000 tons and a year - on - year increase of 11.7% [2] - Disk: The futures price is running below the 20 - day moving average, and the 20 - day moving average is downward [2] - Main Position: The long positions of the main soybean oil contract have increased [2] - Expectation: The soybean oil Y2601 is expected to fluctuate in the range of 8100 - 8500 [2] Palm Oil - Fundamental: Similar to soybean oil, the MPOB report is neutral with less - than - expected production cuts. Currently, the export data of Malaysian palm oil this month shows a 4% month - on - month increase, and the supply of palm oil will increase in the subsequent production - increase season [3] - Basis: The spot price of palm oil is 8710, with a basis of 42, indicating that the spot price is at a discount to the futures price [3] - Inventory: On September 22, the port inventory of palm oil was 580,000 tons, an increase of 10,000 tons from the previous 570,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 10,000 tons and a year - on - year decrease of 34.1% [3] - Disk: The futures price is running below the 20 - day moving average, and the 20 - day moving average is downward [3] - Main Position: The long positions of the main palm oil contract have increased [3] - Expectation: The palm oil P2601 is expected to fluctuate in the range of 8500 - 8900 [3] Rapeseed Oil - Fundamental: The same MPOB report situation as above. The supply of palm oil will increase in the subsequent production - increase season [4] - Basis: The spot price of rapeseed oil is 10326, with a basis of 351, indicating that the spot price is at a premium to the futures price [4] - Inventory: On September 22, the commercial inventory of rapeseed oil was 560,000 tons, an increase of 10,000 tons from the previous 550,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 10,000 tons and a year - on - year increase of 3.2% [4] - Disk: The futures price is running above the 20 - day moving average, and the 20 - day moving average is upward [4] - Main Position: The long positions of the main rapeseed oil contract have increased [4] - Expectation: The rapeseed oil OI2601 is expected to fluctuate in the range of 9800 - 10200 [4] Recent利多利空Analysis - Bullish factors: The inventory - to - sales ratio of US soybeans remains around 4%, indicating tight supply. There is a tremor season for palm oil [5] - Bearish factors: The prices of oils and fats are at a relatively high level historically, and the domestic inventory of oils and fats continues to accumulate. The macro - economy is weak, and the expected production of related oils and fats is high [5] - Current main logic: The global fundamentals of oils and fats are relatively loose [5] Supply - related - Imported soybean inventory [6] - Soybean oil inventory [7] - Soybean meal inventory [9] - Oil mill soybean crushing [11] - Palm oil inventory [17] - Rapeseed oil inventory [19] - Rapeseed inventory [21] - Total domestic oils and fats inventory [23] Demand - related - Apparent consumption of soybean oil [13] - Apparent consumption of soybean meal [15]