沪锌期货早报-20251114

Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The fundamentals of zinc show a supply shortage in 2025. The global zinc plate production from January to August was 908.85 million tons, and the consumption was 936.98 million tons, resulting in a supply shortage of 28.13 million tons. The global zinc mine production from January to August was 844.57 million tons [2]. - The basis is neutral, with the spot price at 22,800 and the basis at +60 [2]. - Inventory trends are mixed. On November 13, the LME zinc inventory increased by 1,925 tons to 37,800 tons, and the SHFE zinc inventory warrants increased by 1,262 tons to 72,152 tons, which is a bearish factor [2]. - The market trend of Shanghai zinc is expected to be a volatile decline. The previous trading day saw a volatile rebound, closing above the 20 - day moving average with the 20 - day moving average trending upwards. However, considering the increase in LME inventory warrants and the high level of SHFE warrants, the contract ZN2512 is expected to decline in a volatile manner [2]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Zinc Futures Market - On November 13, the total trading volume of zinc futures on the exchange was 152,499 lots, with a total trading value of 1,728,958.28. The total open interest was 226,653 lots, a decrease of 732 lots compared to the previous period [3]. 3.2 Spot Market - On November 13, the domestic zinc concentrate spot TC was 2,700 yuan/metal ton for domestic products and 100 US dollars/dry ton for imported products, with no change [4]. - The price of 0 zinc in Shanghai was 22,750 - 22,850 yuan/ton, with an average of 22,800 yuan/ton, an increase of 40 yuan/ton; in Guangdong, it was 22,500 - 22,600 yuan/ton, with an average of 22,550 yuan/ton, an increase of 20 yuan/ton; in Tianjin, it was 22,630 - 22,730 yuan/ton, with an average of 22,680 yuan/ton, an increase of 25 yuan/ton; and in Zhejiang, it was 22,710 - 22,810 yuan/ton, with an average of 22,760 yuan/ton, an increase of 15 yuan/ton [4]. 3.3 Inventory Statistics - From November 3 to November 13, the total inventory of zinc ingots in major domestic markets decreased from 16.32 million tons to 16.07 million tons, a decrease of 0.25 million tons [5]. - On November 13, the LME zinc inventory increased by 1,925 tons to 37,800 tons, and the SHFE zinc inventory warrants increased by 1,262 tons to 72,152 tons [2]. 3.4 Zinc Ingot Production - In October 2025, the actual production of refined zinc was 52.43 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 4.87% and a year - on - year increase of 18.38%. The production was 2.88% higher than the planned value, with a capacity utilization rate of 73.33%. The planned production for November is 52.23 million tons [14]. 3.5 Zinc Concentrate Processing Fees - On November 13, the domestic zinc concentrate processing fee for 50% grade was generally in the range of 2,600 - 3,100 yuan/metal ton, and the imported zinc concentrate processing fee for 48% grade was 90 - 110 US dollars/ton [16]. 3.6 Futures Company Positions - For the zinc contract zn2512 on November 13, the total trading volume of futures companies was 153,085 lots, an increase of 40,544 lots. The total long position was 70,636 lots, a decrease of 2,440 lots, and the total short position was 68,384 lots, a decrease of 1,517 lots [17]. 3.7 Short - term Outlook - The previous trading day, Shanghai zinc showed a volatile decline, closing with a positive line, increasing trading volume. Both long and short positions decreased, with more long - position reductions. The market is expected to consolidate in the short term. Technically, the price closed above the moving average system, with strong support from the moving average. The short - term KDJ indicator is rising and operating in the strong zone. The trend indicator shows that the long - side strength is increasing, and the short - side strength is decreasing, with the long - side strength having an expanding advantage. The operating suggestion for the SHFE zinc ZN2512 contract is a volatile decline [19].