大越期货纯碱早报-20251114

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - The fundamentals of soda ash remain weak, and it is expected to fluctuate in the short term. The supply of soda ash is at a high level, terminal demand is declining, and inventory is at a high level compared to the same period. The imbalance between supply and demand in the industry has not been effectively improved [2][5]. Summary by Directory 1. Daily View - Fundamental analysis shows that alkali plant production is at a high level, the second - phase of Yuangxing is expected to be put into production before the end of the year, overall supply is expected to be abundant; there are supply disturbance expectations for downstream float glass, the daily melting volume of photovoltaic glass continues to decline, and soda ash plant inventory is at a historically high level (bearish). The basis shows that the spot price of heavy - quality soda ash in Hebei Shahe is 1190 yuan/ton, the closing price of SA2601 is 1239 yuan/ton, with a basis of - 49 yuan, and the futures are at a premium to the spot (bearish). Inventory shows that the national soda ash plant inventory is 1.7073 million tons, a 0.40% decrease from the previous week, and the inventory is above the 5 - year average (bearish). The price is running above the 20 - day line, and the 20 - day line is downward (neutral). The main position is net short, and short positions are decreasing (bearish) [2]. 2. Influencing Factors Summary - Likely factors: The supply of downstream glass has stabilized and rebounded at a low level, increasing the demand for soda ash [3]. - Bearish factors: Since 2023, the production capacity of soda ash has expanded significantly, and there are still large production plans this year. The industry's production is at a historically high level. The downstream photovoltaic glass of heavy - quality soda ash has cut production, weakening the demand for soda ash [4]. 3. Soda Ash Futures Market - The closing price of the main contract is 1239 yuan/ton, the low - end price of heavy - quality soda ash in Shahe is 1190 yuan/ton, and the main basis is - 49 yuan. Compared with the previous value, the closing price of the main contract increased by 2.06%, the low - end price of heavy - quality soda ash in Shahe increased by 2.59%, and the main basis decreased by 9.26% [6]. 4. Soda Ash Spot Market - The low - end price of heavy - quality soda ash in the Hebei Shahe market is 1190 yuan/ton, a 30 - yuan increase from the previous day [12]. 5. Fundamental - Supply - Production profit: The profit of heavy - quality soda ash by the North China ammonia - soda process is - 103.50 yuan/ton, and that by the East China co - production process is - 212 yuan/ton, at a historically low level [15]. - Operating rate and production volume: The weekly operating rate of the soda ash industry is 85.67%. The weekly production volume of soda ash is 746,800 tons, including 414,800 tons of heavy - quality soda ash, at a historically high level [18][20]. - Capacity changes: In 2023, the newly added production capacity was 6.4 million tons; in 2024, it was 1.8 million tons; in 2025, the planned newly added production capacity is 7.5 million tons, with an actual production of 1 million tons [21]. 6. Fundamental - Demand - Production - sales rate: The weekly production - sales rate of soda ash is 98.36% [24]. - Downstream demand: The daily melting volume of national float glass is 159,100 tons, with an operating rate of 75.92% [27]. 7. Fundamental - Inventory - The national soda ash plant inventory is 1.7073 million tons, a 0.40% decrease from the previous week, and the inventory is above the 5 - year average [34]. 8. Fundamental - Supply - Demand Balance Sheet - The supply - demand balance sheet from 2017 to 2024E shows the changes in effective capacity, production, operating rate, imports, exports, net imports, apparent supply, total demand, supply - demand difference, capacity growth rate, production growth rate, apparent supply growth rate, and total demand growth rate [35].