原油成品油早报-20251114

Report Overview - Report Title: Crude Oil and Refined Oil Morning Report - Research Team: Energy and Chemicals Team of the Research Center - Date: November 14, 2025 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Report's Core View - This week, oil prices remained volatile. OPEC+ decided to suspend production increases in Q1 next year. US EIA commercial crude oil inventories increased by 5.202 million barrels due to increased imports and reduced refining activities, exceeding market expectations. Western sanctions on Russia and Iran have led to a record high in floating storage, and Russian oil is trading at its largest discount in India in nearly a year. Refining margins in Europe and the US rebounded this week. Western sanctions and the extended maintenance of Dangote Refinery supported gasoline and diesel cracking sentiment. The domestic fundamentals are neutral. Global oversupply and sanctions support the Dubai market, and Brent crude oil is expected to trade in the range of $55 - $65 in Q4 [6]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1. Price Data - From November 7 - 13, 2025, WTI prices fluctuated between $58.49 - $61.04, BRENT between $62.71 - $65.16, and DUBAI increased from $64.93 to $64.45 with a change of $0.18. Other related prices such as SC, OMAN, and various refined product prices also showed corresponding fluctuations [3]. 3.2. Daily News - Ukraine's drone attacks damaged apartment buildings and oil depots in Russia's Black Sea port of Novorossiysk [3]. - The Trump administration lifted the ban on oil extraction in the 23 - million - acre Alaska National Petroleum Reserve, reversing a ban implemented by President Biden. Alaska predicts that the oil field's crude production will rise to 139,600 barrels per day in fiscal year 2033, up from 15,800 barrels per day in fiscal year 2023 [4]. - Russian refineries are increasing the utilization of idle capacity to make up for losses caused by Ukrainian drone attacks [4]. - The IEA said that US sanctions may have a profound impact on Russia's crude production outlook, but it maintains its estimate of Russia's average daily crude output of 9.3 million barrels this quarter and next year [4]. 3.3. Inventory Data - In the week ending November 7, US crude exports decreased by 1.551 million barrels per day to 2.816 million barrels per day; domestic crude production increased by 211,000 barrels to 13.862 million barrels per day; commercial crude inventories (excluding strategic reserves) increased by 6.413 million barrels to 428 million barrels, a 1.52% increase; strategic petroleum reserve (SPR) inventories increased by 798,000 barrels to 410.4 million barrels, a 0.19% increase; and commercial crude imports (excluding strategic reserves) were 5.222 million barrels per day, a decrease of 702,000 barrels per day from the previous week [4][5]. - As of the week ending November 12, the total refined product inventory at the Port of Fujairah in the UAE was 21.181 million barrels, an increase of 3.204 million barrels from the previous week [6]. - As of the week ending November 8, Japan's commercial crude inventory decreased by 353,966 kiloliters to 10,379,001 kiloliters [6]. - From October 31 - November 6, both gasoline and diesel inventories decreased, with gasoline at 10.5757 million tons (down 0.4%) and diesel at 12.8962 million tons (down 1.82%) [6].