大越期货聚烯烃早报-20251114

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The report analyzes the LLDPE and PP markets, suggesting that both are expected to have a volatile trend today due to factors such as oversupply, macro - economic conditions, and oil price fluctuations [4][6]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs LLDPE Overview - Fundamentals: In October, the official PMI was 49, down 0.8 percentage points from the previous month, indicating a decline in manufacturing prosperity. After the Sino - US meeting, some restrictions were lifted, and OPEC + announced a suspension of production increases in Q1 2026, causing oil prices to fluctuate. The demand for agricultural films remains strong, but stocking for other films is ending. The current LLDPE delivery spot price is 6850 (+10), and the overall fundamentals are bearish [4]. - Basis: The basis of the LLDPE 2601 contract is 32, with a premium/discount ratio of 0.5%, which is neutral [4]. - Inventory: PE comprehensive inventory is 57.9 million tons (+3.9), which is bearish [4]. - Disk: The 20 - day moving average of the LLDPE main contract is downward, and the closing price is below the 20 - day line, which is bearish [4]. - Main Position: The net long position of the LLDPE main contract is increasing, which is bullish [4]. - Expectation: The LLDPE main contract is expected to fluctuate today due to oversupply, oil price fluctuations, and moderately high industrial inventory [4]. - Likely Factors: Bullish factors include new sanctions on Russian oil leading to a rebound in oil prices and a phased easing in Sino - US talks. Bearish factors are weak demand year - on - year and significant new production capacity in Q4 [5]. PP Overview - Fundamentals: Similar to LLDPE, the macro - economic situation shows a decline in manufacturing prosperity. After the Sino - US meeting, relevant measures were adjusted, and OPEC +'s decision affected oil prices. The demand for plastic weaving is supported by the peak season, and the demand for pipes is recovering. The current PP delivery spot price is 6470 (-0), and the overall fundamentals are bearish [6]. - Basis: The basis of the PP 2601 contract is - 10, with a premium/discount ratio of - 0.2%, which is neutral [6]. - Inventory: PP comprehensive inventory is 62 million tons (+2), which is bearish [6]. - Disk: The 20 - day moving average of the PP main contract is downward, and the closing price is below the 20 - day line, which is bearish [6]. - Main Position: The net short position of the PP main contract is increasing, which is bearish [6]. - Expectation: The PP main contract is expected to fluctuate today due to oversupply, oil price fluctuations, and moderately high industrial inventory [6]. - Likely Factors: Bullish factors are the same as those for LLDPE, while bearish factors also include weak demand year - on - year and significant new production capacity in Q4 [7]. Spot and Futures Market Data - LLDPE: The spot delivery price is 6850 (+10), the 01 contract price is 6818 (+30), the basis is 32 (-20), and the import price difference is - 243 (+31). The warehouse receipt is 12067 (0), PE comprehensive factory inventory is 57.9 million tons (+3.9), and social inventory is 50 million tons (-10) [8]. - PP: The spot delivery price is 6470 (0), the 01 contract price is 6480 (+20), the basis is - 10 (-20), and the import price difference is - 213 (+19). The warehouse receipt is 14642 (0), PP comprehensive factory inventory is 62 million tons (+2), and social inventory is 32.4 million tons (-0.9) [8]. Supply - Demand Balance Sheets - Polyethylene: From 2018 - 2024, capacity, production, net imports, and apparent consumption have shown various trends. For example, in 2024, capacity was 3584.5, production was 2773.8, net imports were 1360.32, and the import dependence was 32.9%. The expected capacity in 2025 is 4319.5 [13]. - Polypropylene: From 2018 - 2024, capacity, production, net imports, and apparent consumption also changed. In 2024, capacity was 4418.5, production was 3425, net imports were 360, and the import dependence was 9.5%. The expected capacity in 2025 is 4906 [15].