《黑色》日报-20251114

Report Industry Investment Ratings - No relevant information provided Core Views Steel Industry - The overall demand for five major steel products is declining, with steel mills reducing production and inventory continuing to decline. The iron water output has increased month-on-month, which is expected to affect the subsequent increase in finished steel production. The supply and demand of hot-rolled coils are basically balanced, but the inventory is at a high level, and the difference between hot-rolled and rebar will continue to converge. It is not recommended to go long on iron ore, and the long-coking coal and short-hot-rolled coil arbitrage can be continued. One-sided short positions can be attempted at high prices [1] Iron Ore Industry - The iron ore market is in a volatile trend, and the basis continues to narrow. The supply is expected to increase, while the demand is weakening. Considering the large discount of iron ore, partial profit-taking can be considered for the long-coking coal and short-iron ore arbitrage, and then pay attention to it again after the coking coal stabilizes [4] Coking Coal and Coke Industry - The coking coal market is generally in a tight pattern but shows signs of loosening. The supply is expected to increase, and the demand is weakening. The coke market is in a state of tight supply and demand, and there is still an expectation of price increase under cost support. One-sided trading should be treated with a volatile view, and 1-5 positive arbitrage is recommended for both coking coal and coke [7] Summary by Directory Steel Industry Steel Prices and Spreads - Rebar spot prices in East, North, and South China are 3200 yuan/ton, 3210 yuan/ton, and 3270 yuan/ton respectively, with slight changes. Rebar futures contracts also show different price changes. Hot-rolled coil spot prices in different regions are relatively stable, and futures contracts show small fluctuations [1] Cost and Profit - The billet price is 2930 yuan/ton, unchanged. The cost of electric furnace rebar in Jiangsu has decreased by 1 yuan, and the cost of converter rebar has decreased by 11 yuan. The profits of hot-rolled coils in different regions have increased to varying degrees [1] Supply - The daily average iron water output is 236.8 tons, an increase of 1.1%. The production of five major steel products is 834.4 tons, a decrease of 2.6%. The production of rebar and hot-rolled coils has decreased, with rebar production dropping by 4.1% [1] Inventory - The inventory of five major steel products is 1477.4 tons, a decrease of 1.7%. The rebar inventory is 576.2 tons, a decrease of 2.8%. The hot-rolled coil inventory is basically unchanged [1] Transaction and Demand - The building materials trading volume is 10.6 tons, an increase of 16.0%. The apparent demand for five major steel products has decreased by 0.7%, and the apparent demand for rebar and hot-rolled coils has also decreased slightly [1] Iron Ore Industry Iron Ore Prices and Spreads - The warehouse receipt costs of different iron ore powders have increased to varying degrees, and the basis of 01 contracts has generally decreased. The 5-9 spread has increased by 15.0%, and the 9-1 spread has decreased by 7.6% [4] Supply - The weekly arrival volume at 45 ports is 2741.2 tons, a decrease of 14.8%. The global weekly shipping volume is 3069.0 tons, a decrease of 4.5%. The monthly national import volume is 11632.6 tons, an increase of 10.6% [4] Demand - The weekly average daily iron water output of 247 steel mills is 234.2 tons, a decrease of 0.9%. The monthly national pig iron and crude steel output has decreased [4] Inventory - The inventory at 45 ports is 15128.19 tons, an increase of 1.5%. The imported ore inventory of 247 steel mills has increased by 1.8% [4] Coking Coal and Coke Industry Coke and Coking Coal Prices and Spreads - Coke and coking coal prices have decreased to varying degrees, and the basis has also changed. The spread between different contracts has also shown different trends [7] Supply - The coke production has decreased by 1.5%, and the coking coal production has increased slightly. Some coal mines in Shanxi are expected to resume production, and the supply of coking coal is expected to increase [7] Demand - The iron water output has increased, but the demand for coking coal and coke has weakened to some extent due to factors such as environmental protection restrictions and low steel mill profits [7] Inventory - The coke inventory has decreased by 1.4%, and the coking coal inventory has increased slightly. The inventory of different links shows different trends [7]