《能源化工》日报-20251114

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - No industry investment ratings are provided in the reports. 2. Core Views Crude Oil - Despite concerns about crude oil supply glut, US government's end of shutdown and tightened sanctions on Russia led to a slight rebound in overnight oil prices. OPEC+ faces continuous production - increase pressure, with a weak fourth - quarter supply - demand outlook. EIA周报 shows significant increase in US crude production and large inventory growth, so oil prices remain under pressure. Short - term Brent may trade in the range of $60 - 66 per barrel, with a bearish view. Attention should be paid to substantial sanctions on Russia and the Russia - Ukraine geopolitical situation [2]. Polyolefins - PP shows both supply and demand increase. Supply rises due to fewer maintenance, and demand remains resilient in the automotive and home - appliance sectors, but there is slight inventory accumulation this week under new - capacity pressure. PE has weak supply and demand. Although unplanned maintenance eases supply pressure, import sources are abundant, and non - agricultural - film demand generally declines. There is inventory reduction this week, but port inventory remains high. The cost side has crude oil fluctuating and coal strengthening, with a slight repair in PDH profit. High inventory and cost support continue to compete, and market expectations are still weak [4]. Methanol - Delayed gas restrictions in Iran put significant pressure on the port methanol market. High inventory, combined with positive import profit from Iran, leads to continuous trading and weakening willingness to hold goods, resulting in price decline and stable basis. In the inland market, Baofeng continues external procurement, and Jiutai has unexpected maintenance, with subsequent increase in domestic production. Overseas gas restrictions are less than expected. On the demand side, multiple MTO units reduce load due to profit reasons, and traditional downstream purchases for rigid demand. The market currently trades on the "weak reality" logic, with the core contradiction being high port inventory. The inventory problem of the 01 contract cannot be solved, and the weak reality will continue to be traded before gas restrictions in Iran [8]. Natural Rubber - On the supply side, there are still periodic rainfall disturbances in overseas production areas, but overall, a strong output is expected during the peak - production period, and raw - material prices have some downward space. Domestic production areas are gradually entering the output - reduction period, with firm domestic raw - material prices. On the demand side, some northern regions are entering the off - season in the month, with slower market sales, mainly digesting inventory and purchasing as needed. With market digestion, some replenish in small quantities in the middle of the month. In the short term, due to large macro fluctuations, rubber prices are expected to fluctuate. Follow the raw - material output in the peak - production period of major production areas and macro changes. If raw - material supply is smooth, prices may weaken; if not, rubber prices are expected to trade around 15,000 - 15,500 [11]. PVC and Caustic Soda - Caustic Soda: Low - concentration caustic soda gets price support from increased inquiries from alumina plants, but overall, there is a lack of real positive factors. The caustic - soda industry still faces supply - demand pressure, with few maintenance enterprises and an increasing supply. The main downstream alumina price is weakening, with shrinking industry profit and increasing losses, so the main demand side provides weak support, suppressing caustic - soda prices. Although there may be periodic replenishment demand from middle - and downstream inventory consumption, prices are still under pressure due to increasing supply and weakening demand. The non - aluminum market is sluggish. It is expected that caustic - soda prices will trend down in the long run, but there is short - term support from downstream periodic demand. Track the rhythm and sustainability of downstream replenishment [12]. - PVC: The supply - demand surplus problem has not improved, with increasing supply pressure, weakening demand expectations, insufficient cost support, and no positive macro expectations. It is expected that prices will continue to weaken. On the demand side, major downstream sectors such as real estate are still weak, and product enterprises like profiles and pipes have limited new orders, mainly purchasing for rigid demand, which cannot provide continuous market support. In November - December, there will still be an impact from new production capacity. After the maintenance of Inner Mongolia Sanlian, Qilu Petrochemical, and Inner Mongolia Junzheng ends next week, production is expected to increase. From November to January of the next year is the traditional off - season, with reduced outdoor construction in the north, and overall real - estate demand decline is a negative factor. The situation of anti - dumping duties in India is unclear, and exports are mainly in a wait - and - see state. The supply - demand surplus persists, and prices are not optimistic, expected to continue weakening at the bottom [12]. Glass and Soda Ash - Soda Ash: Recently, with the previous price decline, middle - and downstream buyers have increased purchases, leading to a rebound in the futures price. However, the overall surplus situation is still prominent. Fundamentally, weekly production remains at a high level of around 750,000 tons, with obvious surplus compared to current rigid demand. Manufacturer inventory has been transferred to the middle - and downstream, and trade inventory continues to rise. In the medium term, there is no expectation of significant downstream capacity increase, so the overall demand for soda ash will continue the previous rigid - demand pattern. Without actual capacity exit or load reduction, the supply - demand situation will face further pressure. Track macro fluctuations and soda - ash plant load - adjustment situations. The supply - demand outlook is bearish. Short - term operation should be on the sidelines, and wait for opportunities to short on rebounds [13]. - Glass: Sales have weakened significantly, and the sales - to - production ratio has fallen below 100% in recent days. Although four production lines in the Shahe area were cold - repaired last week, there will be production - line restart and ignition, adding about 3,650 tons of daily capacity, which will put pressure on the supply side. The latest deep - processing order days have slightly improved, and there is still some rigid demand support in November as it is the year - end rush season. However, in the long - term, at the end of the peak season, there are concerns about future demand sustainability. As the temperature drops in the north, outdoor construction will stop, and glass prices will face pressure after December. The real - estate industry is still in the bottom cycle, with significant reduction in construction volume. The industry needs capacity exit to solve the surplus problem. The high sales - to - production ratio of spot has ended, and glass is expected to be weak in the short term [13]. Polyester Industry Chain - PX: Currently, Asian and domestic PX loads remain high. In the short - term, PTA load is maintained, and the previous terminal and polyester demand was better than expected. With low polyester inventory, load is expected to remain relatively high from November to December. PX demand still has short - term support. Yesterday, PX showed a strong trend due to the lifting of India's BIS certification and the start of the Asia - America aromatics arbitrage. However, limited by weak overall oil - price support and expected weakening of terminal demand in the industry chain, the PX rebound space is restricted. Short - term PX short positions should be avoided [14]. - PTA: There are still many PTA plant maintenance plans in November. The previous terminal and polyester demand was better than expected. With low polyester inventory, load is expected to remain relatively high in November - December. The supply - demand balance in November is expected to be tight, but it will be loose from December to the first quarter of next year. Yesterday, PTA showed a strong trend due to the cancellation of India's BIS certification and PX transfer - demand news, but the spot - market negotiation atmosphere was dull, and the basis was still weak. The PTA rebound space is restricted. Short - term TA should pay attention to the $4800 pressure level, and short positions should be avoided. TA1 - 5 can be treated as a rolling reverse spread [14]. - Ethylene Glycol (EG): Recently, some coal - based EG plants are under maintenance, but Jinghai Petrochemical's plant has restarted production. Previously - maintained coal - based plants plan to restart in the middle - and late - November. Domestic supply remains high, and North American EG load has reached a high level. Middle - East supply shows no reduction, and overseas shipments are concentrated in January. Currently, polyester load is declining, and due to the high expected inventory accumulation in November - December, EG is under pressure. Hold out - of - the - money call options on EG2601 with a strike price of no less than 4100; go for reverse spreads on EG1 - 5 at high prices [14]. - Short - fiber: Currently, short - fiber factories have low inventory levels and reasonable processing fees, so short - fiber supply remains relatively high. In November, there is an expected seasonal weakening of terminal demand. Yesterday, the cancellation of India's BIS certification made raw - material PTA stronger, but it mainly benefited PTA and long - fiber, having relatively little impact on short - fiber. In the short - term, due to the weak supply - demand expectation, the short - fiber rebound space is restricted, and processing fees are expected to be compressed. The strategy is the same as PTA for single - side trading; the processing fee on the disk fluctuates in the range of 800 - 1100, and short positions should be taken at high prices [14]. - Bottle - grade polyester chips: In mid - November, the Huarun plant has both maintenance and restart. According to Longzhong Information, the commissioning of Dongying Fuhai's new plant is postponed, and domestic supply changes little. Considering the November market off - season, soft - drink and catering demand decline slightly, and demand provides insufficient support for bottle - grade chips. The supply - demand situation remains loose. Bottle - grade chips' social inventory is likely to enter the seasonal inventory - accumulation phase, with prices fluctuating with the cost side. Processing fees are limitedly boosted by supply - demand and change with raw - material costs. The strategy for single - side trading is the same as PTA; the main - contract processing fee on the disk is expected to fluctuate in the range of 300 - 450 yuan per ton [14]. Pure Benzene and Styrene - Pure Benzene: There are new capacity commissioning, plant restart, and planned/unplanned maintenance expectations for pure benzene recently, but overall domestic supply may remain loose. On the demand side, some loss - making downstream products have production - reduction and price - protection expectations, so demand support is limited. Although East - China port inventory decreased this week, supply pressure remains. There is an expected amount of imports from November to December, but the US - Asia arbitrage window and gasoline - blending may disrupt market sentiment, and the actual impact needs further consideration. With weak crude - oil supply - demand expectations, cost support is limited, and the rebound space is restricted. Follow plant changes. In the short - term, BZ2603 has weak self - driving force, pay attention to the 5640 pressure level, and be cautious about chasing up [16]. - Styrene: Two new styrene plants are operating stably, and previously - shut - down plants have restarted. There are also expected planned/unplanned maintenance in the near future, so overall supply may remain stable. Downstream EPS enters the seasonal off - season and reduces its operating rate due to high product inventory. PS has new plant commissioning and restart, and ABS remains stable. Overall demand changes little. Although inventory decreased this week, it is still at a high level, restricting the upside. Overseas and plant accidents may disrupt the domestic market. Overall, styrene supply - demand is expected to be in a tight balance, with insufficient price - driving force. Follow plant restart and production - reduction situations and cost changes. In the short - term, EB12 price may fluctuate with the cost side [16]. 3. Summaries by Related Catalogs Crude Oil - Price Changes: On November 13, Brent was at $63.01, up $0.30 (0.48%) from the previous day; WTI was at $58.69, up $0.20 (0.34%). Most refined - oil products also had price changes. For example, NYM RBOB was at 195.97, up 0.43 (0.22%); ICE Gasoil was at $697.75, down $27.00 ( - 3.73%) [2]. - Crack Spreads: Most crack spreads decreased. For example, US gasoline crack spread was at 23.62, down 0.02 ( - 0.08%); Singapore diesel crack spread was at 27.71, down 1.02 ( - 3.55%) [2]. Polyolefins - Price and Spread Changes: L2601 closed at 6818, up 30 (0.44%); PP2601 closed at 6480, up 20 (0.31%). L15 spread was at - 75, up 1 (1.32%); PP15 spread was at - 97, up 15 (13.39%) [4]. - Inventory and开工率: PE enterprise inventory was at 52.9, up 3.9 (7.96%); PP enterprise inventory was at 62.0, up 2.01 (3.35%). PE device operating rate was at 83.1%, up 0.55 (0.66%); PP device operating rate was at 79.6%, up 1.77 (2.28%) [4]. Methanol - Price and Basis Changes: MA2601 closed at 2103, down 5 ( - 0.24%); MA15 spread was at - 105, down 2 (1.94%); Taicang basis was at - 29, up 11 ( - 27.50%) [6]. - Inventory and开工率: Methanol enterprise inventory was at 36.925, down 1.72 ( - 4.44%); methanol port inventory was at 154.4, up 2.65 (1.75%). Upstream domestic enterprise operating rate was at 76.54%, up 0.45 (0.59%); downstream external - procurement MTO device operating rate was at 82.96%, down 2.02 ( - 2.38%) [7][8]. Natural Rubber - Price and Spread Changes: Yunnan state - owned whole - latex (SCRWF) was at 14800, up 50 (0.34%); 9 - 1 spread was at 125, down 10 ( - 7.41%); 1 - 5 spread was at - 85, down 5 ( - 6.25%) [11]. - Production and开工率: September Thailand production was at 477.50, down 26.00 ( - 5.45%); September Indonesia production was at 195.00, down 3.40 ( - 1.71%). Tire semi - steel tire operating rate was at 73.68%, up 0.01; tire full - steel tire operating rate was at 64.50%, down 0.96 [11]. PVC and Caustic Soda - Price and Spread Changes: Shandong 32% liquid caustic soda converted price was at 2468.8, unchanged; SH2601 was at 2337.0, down 7.0 ( - 0.3%); V2605 - V2601 was at 307.0, up 5.0 ( - 1.7%) [12]. - 开工率 and Inventory: Caustic - soda industry operating rate was at 89.9%, up 1.5 (1.7%); PVC total operating rate was at 79.3%, up 2.2 (2.8%). Liquid caustic soda East - China factory inventory was at 21.5, down 0.8 ( - 3.5%); PVC total social inventory was at 54.6, up 0.1 (0.2%) [12]. Glass and Soda Ash - Price and Spread Changes: North - China glass quote was at 1110, unchanged; North - China soda - ash quote was at 1300, unchanged. Glass2601 was at 1056, up 7 (0.67%); Soda - ash2601 was at 1239, up 25.0 (2.06%) [13]. - Supply and Inventory: Soda - ash operating rate was at 86.89%, down 0.02 ( - 1.72%); soda - ash weekly production was at 75.76, down 1.3 ( - 1.71%). Glass factory inventory was at 6579.00, up 296.6 (4.72%); soda - ash factory inventory was at 170.20, up 4.2 (2.54%) [13]. Polyester Industry Chain - Price and Spread Changes: Brent crude (January) was at $63.01, up $0.30 (0.5%); POY150/48 price was at 6570, down 10 ( - 0.2%); PX - crude spread was at 366, down 1 ( - 0.3%) [14]. - 开工率 Changes: PTA operating rate was at 76.4%, down 1.6 ( - 2.1%); MEG comprehensive operating rate was at 76.2%, down 3.8 ( - 4.9%); polyester comprehensive operating rate was at 91.3%, down 0.4 ( - 0.4%) [14