《有色》日报-20251114

Report Industry Investment Ratings No industry investment ratings are provided in the reports. 2. Core Views Zinc - The fundamentals and macro - environment have limited changes. The supply is generally loose, and the subsequent supply pressure may be limited due to the decline in smelting profits. The demand is average, and the domestic zinc ingot remains at a discount. The LME zinc has upward pressure, while the export window of zinc ingots may boost the domestic zinc price. The Shanghai - London ratio may be repaired, with the main contract referring to 22300 - 23000 [2]. Copper - After the implementation of interest - rate cuts and tariffs, the market may enter a macro "vacuum period" in November. The supply of copper ore is in short supply, and the downstream demand has strong resilience. The medium - and long - term supply - demand contradiction supports the upward movement of the copper price bottom. The main contract refers to 86500 - 88000 [4]. Tin - The supply of tin ore is tight, and the demand shows regional differentiation. The fundamentals are strong, and long positions should be held. Attention should be paid to macro - level changes and the supply recovery in Myanmar [7]. Aluminum - The alumina market is in a state of loose supply and demand, and the price is expected to maintain a weak shock pattern. The electrolytic aluminum market is driven by the macro - environment, but the fundamentals are weak. The aluminum price will fluctuate between macro - level benefits and weak fundamentals in the short term, and attention should be paid to the risk of high - level callback [9]. Aluminum Alloy - The cost of aluminum alloy is strongly supported, and the demand is differentiated. The inventory is accumulating. The ADC12 price is expected to maintain a strong shock pattern, with the main contract referring to 20800 - 21400 [11]. Nickel - The nickel market is in a state of long - short interweaving. The refined nickel production is at a high level, and the supply of nickel ore is generally stable. The nickel - iron price is under pressure, and the stainless - steel demand is weak. The nickel price is expected to maintain a weak shock pattern, with the main contract referring to 118000 - 124000 [13]. Stainless Steel - The stainless - steel market is in a weak shock state. The macro - level drive is weakened, the nickel - ore market is temporarily stable, and the nickel - iron price is under pressure. The supply is under pressure, and the demand is insufficient. The price is expected to continue to be weak and volatile, with the main contract referring to 12400 - 12800 [16]. Lithium Carbonate - The lithium carbonate market is running strongly. The supply is increasing, and the demand is optimistic. The short - term supply and demand are expected to increase simultaneously, but attention should be paid to the sustainability of demand improvement. The price may fluctuate and adjust in the short term [17]. Industrial Silicon - The industrial silicon spot price is stable, and the futures price is falling. If the organic silicon enterprises cut production, the inventory pressure will increase. The price is expected to fluctuate at a low level, with the main price range being 8500 - 9500 [18]. Polysilicon - The polysilicon spot price is stable, and the futures price is rising. The supply and demand are both weak. The price is expected to fluctuate in a high - level range. Attention should be paid to the support of the spot price and the digestion of warehouse receipts [19]. 3. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs Zinc - Price and Spread: The SMM 0 zinc ingot price increased by 0.09% to 22630 yuan/ton, and the import loss was - 4587 yuan/ton. The Shanghai - London ratio decreased to 7.36 [2]. - Fundamental Data: In October, the refined zinc output was 61.72 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 2.85%. The galvanizing and other开工 rates showed different changes [2]. Copper - Price and Basis: The SMM 1 electrolytic copper price increased by 0.48% to 87210 yuan/ton, and the import loss was - 827 yuan/ton [4]. - Fundamental Data: In October, the electrolytic copper output was 109.16 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 2.62%. The copper rod and other开工 rates increased [4]. Tin - Spot Price and Basis: The SMM 1 tin price increased by 1.72% to 296000 yuan/ton, and the import loss was - 15428.41 yuan/ton [7]. - Fundamental Data (Monthly): In September, the tin ore import decreased by 15.13%, and the SMM refined tin output in October increased by 53.09% [7]. Aluminum - Price and Spread: The SMM A00 aluminum price increased by 1.15% to 21920 yuan/ton, and the alumina price in some regions decreased slightly [9]. - Fundamental Data: In October, the alumina output was 778.53 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 2.39%, and the electrolytic aluminum output was 374.21 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 3.52% [9]. Aluminum Alloy - Price and Spread: The SMM ADC12 price increased by 0.70% to 21650 yuan/ton, and the scrap - to - refined aluminum price difference in some regions increased [11]. - Fundamental Data: In October, the recycled aluminum alloy ingot output decreased by 2.42%, and the primary aluminum alloy ingot output increased by 1.06% [11]. Nickel - Price and Basis: The SMM 1 electrolytic nickel price increased by 0.17% to 120650 yuan/ton, and the import loss was - 1765 yuan/ton [13]. - Supply and Inventory: The domestic refined nickel output increased, and the LME inventory decreased by 0.47% [13]. Stainless Steel - Price and Spread: The 304/2B (Wuxi Hongwang 2.0 coil) price increased by 0.39% to 12750 yuan/ton, and the nickel - iron price decreased by 0.22% [16]. - Fundamental Data: The 300 - series stainless - steel crude steel output in China increased by 0.38%, and the social inventory increased by 1.73% [16]. Lithium Carbonate - Price and Basis: The SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate price increased by 1.26% to 84350 yuan/ton, and the lithium spodumene concentrate price increased by 1.73% [17]. - Fundamental Data: In October, the lithium carbonate output was 92260 tons, a month - on - month increase of 5.73%, and the demand increased by 8.70% [17]. Industrial Silicon - Spot Price and Basis: The East China oxygen - containing S15530 industrial silicon price remained unchanged at 9500 yuan/ton, and the basis increased [18]. - Fundamental Data (Monthly): The national industrial silicon output was 45.22 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 7.46%, and the social inventory decreased by 1.09% [18]. Polysilicon - Spot Price and Basis: The N - type re - feed material average price remained unchanged at 52150 yuan/ton, and the N - type silicon wafer price was stable [19]. - Fundamental Data: The polysilicon output was 13.40 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 3.08%, and the inventory increased by 3.09% [19].