大越期货原油早报-20251114

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - Overnight EIA inventory exceeded expectations, continuing to suppress oil prices. However, there was destocking in downstream and refined oil, which partially stabilized prices. The market showed signs of stabilization after a significant decline. The IEA monthly report increased concerns about crude oil supply - demand surplus. Short - term negatives have been fully exposed. In the short term, oil prices are expected to stabilize and fluctuate. SC2512 is expected to trade in the range of 450 - 460, and long - term investment should be on the sidelines [3]. 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents 3.1 Daily Hints - Fundamentals: More Fed policymakers are cautious about further easing due to inflation concerns and relatively stable labor market after two interest rate cuts this year, reducing the probability of a December rate cut to below 50%. Trump signed a temporary appropriation bill to end the 43 - day federal government shutdown. The IEA warns of a large - scale oil market surplus of up to 4.09 million barrels per day next year [3]. - Basis: On November 13, with Oman crude oil at $64 per barrel and Qatar Marine crude at $63.38 per barrel, the basis was 29.90 yuan/barrel, indicating a spot premium over futures [3]. - Inventory: US API crude inventory increased by 1.3 million barrels in the week ending November 7. EIA inventory increased by 6.413 million barrels (expected 1.96 million). Cushing area inventory decreased by 34,600 barrels. Shanghai crude oil futures inventory remained at 3.464 million barrels as of November 13 [3]. - Market: The 20 - day moving average was flat, and the price was below the average [3]. - Main Positions: As of September 23, WTI crude oil main positions were long and increasing; as of November 4, Brent crude oil main positions were long and decreasing [3]. - Expectation: Short - term oil prices will stabilize and fluctuate. SC2512 will trade between 450 - 460, and long - term investment should be on the sidelines [3]. 3.2 Recent News - IEA Outlook: The IEA sees "considerable downside risks" in Russia's crude oil production but maintains its estimate of 9.3 million barrels per day for this quarter and next year until more details are available [5]. - Fed Policy: More Fed policymakers are cautious about further easing, reducing the market - perceived probability of a December rate cut to below 50% [3][5]. - EIA Report: Commercial crude inventory (excluding strategic reserves) increased by 6.413 million barrels to 428 million barrels, with an expected increase of 1.96 million barrels. Cushing crude inventory decreased by 34,600 barrels. Strategic petroleum reserve inventory increased by 798,000 barrels to 410.4 million barrels. Heating oil inventory increased by 55,000 barrels, refined oil inventory decreased by 637,000 barrels, and gasoline inventory decreased by 945,000 barrels [5]. 3.3 Long - Short Concerns - Bullish Factors: The cancellation of US - Russia talks and increased sanctions on Russia; OPEC+ will suspend production increases in Q1 next year [6]. - Bearish Factors: Easing Middle - East situation; consistent expectations of crude oil surplus from institutions [6]. - Market Driver: Short - term negatives have been exhausted, and geopolitical positives are not obvious. There is a long - term risk of oversupply [6]. 3.4 Fundamental Data - Futures Market: Brent crude oil settled at $63.01 (up $0.30, 0.48%); WTI at $58.69 (up $0.20, 0.34%); SC at 454.4 (down 12.2, - 2.61%); Oman at $63.56 (down $1.43, - 2.20%) [7]. - Spot Market: UK Brent Dtd at $62.34 (down $0.20, - 0.32%); WTI at $58.69 (up $0.20, 0.34%); Oman at $64.00 (down $2.30, - 3.47%); Shengli at $59.33 (down $2.41, - 3.90%); Dubai at $63.88 (down $2.49, - 3.75%) [9]. - Inventory Trends: API inventory increased by 1.3 million barrels to 45.1739 million barrels in the week ending November 7. EIA inventory increased by 6.413 million barrels to 42.7581 million barrels in the same week [10][12]. 3.5 Position Data - WTI Crude Oil: As of September 23, the net long position was 102,958, an increase of 4,249 [15]. - Brent Crude Oil: As of November 4, the net long position was 152,231, a decrease of 19,336 [17].